Railroad industry multiples

Hi guys,

I have to perform a transaction multiple for a US railroad company. We have transaction multiple information about three past merger deals in the railroad industry.

The multiples presented are:
P/E , P/B , EV/Sales and EV/Ebitda. We have to decide which multiples are usefull in this industry.
Given high capital intensity and differnces in capital structures I think I should only focus on EV multiples (EV/S and EV/Ebitda). Do you guys agree on this?

Moreover, the projected synergies in % of operating expenses for this merger are projected at 17%. However, the transaction multiples provided are for deals with 20-30% synergies. Is there a way to control for this?
Thank you very much in advance!

 
Whiskey5:

EV / EBITDA - its going to be pretty high. Also look at public comps in addition to transaction comps. There are some publicly traded rail / rail car mfg companies ie RailAmerica.

Thank you very much! Why only the EV/Ebitda? And is there any specific reason to also look at transaction multiples? Since this company is part of a merger, I think I should only look at transaction multiples? It is worth more to the acquirer than to other companies right?

 
Best Response
luckyluke:
Whiskey5:

EV / EBITDA - its going to be pretty high. Also look at public comps in addition to transaction comps. There are some publicly traded rail / rail car mfg companies ie RailAmerica.

Thank you very much! Why only the EV/Ebitda?
And is there any specific reason to also look at transaction multiples? Since this company is part of a merger, I think I should only look at transaction multiples? It is worth more to the acquirer than to other companies right?

is this for a case study? you said you have info on past rail-related transactions, so assume you have multiples, too?

if you have access, last 10-year EV/EBITDA on its peers would tell you how the industry (in a perfect, including all rail-related companies) has been trending.

 

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