How are restructuring groups doing currently? I heard that PJT, LAZ, etc. are even turning down mandates but what about other EB/MM groups like Guggenheim, HL, Rothschild, Jefferies, Centerview, etc.? Which groups are best set up to increase their market positioning during this crisis?
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The thing to understand about restructuring is that the space is actually very small. In a sense it is like the big 4 accounting firms; if you are a large public company/creditor to them, there is an extremely high likelihood that in the event of a bankruptcy, etc. it is going to be one of PJT, Moelis, Houlihan, or Lazard working on it (plus perhaps Rothschild).
These groups aren't that big either. PJT has 14 restructuring partners, Moelis has 15 MDs, Houlihan has 45 MDs (as a size comparison PJT has ~45 advisory MDs, Moelis has ~100 advisory MDs, and Houlihan has ~120 M&A MDs). As you can imagine all of these restructuring franchises are doing well right now, but you also have to consider that it can take up to 12-18months in some drawn out restructuring cases before the fees are actually realized (though there is a sizeable retainer fee in most structures, at least sizeable compared to M&A). So wouldn't necessarily expect massive Q2/Q3 performances from these firms.
Couldn't find the 2019 data publicly available but it largely looks similar to 2018, which you can download the Reuters report here: https://thesource.refinitiv.com/thesource/getfile/index/025800ef-e1a5-4…
Beyond those names you'll see Evercore, PWP, Greenhill, pick up a handful but not near the levels of the others. Look at the deal value and volume in that report, they are significantly smaller.
It's pretty easy to search recent deals in 2019/20 and see that EVR picks up more than just a handful.
They had 12 completed in the US in 2019, that's less than half of what PJT/Moelis/HL each did (at a smaller value per deal as well, except for HL which takes on more MM stuff at times). In 2018 they had 9 completed in the US (again less than half or even a third of the other major players).
Not saying they are a lesser shop by any means but they historically have not had the same size franchise as the others. Of course they will pick up more now but so will everyone else, probably reasonably in proportion to the above.
moelis has been doing a bit worse recently, with evr picking up the slack and pwp growing as well
Wasn't MoCo #1 in 2019
From a distressed buy side perspective, disagree with this. If there is a “top tier” Moelis doesn’t belong in it. Lazard / PJT are top for debtor, HL for creditor. Otherwise Moelis, Evercore, PWP, Centerview, Rothschild, Greenhill, Ducera, Guggenheim pretty interchangeable and comes down to specific circumstances (industry, MD, fund relationships, etc). But yes, in any large restructuring with multiple constituents pretty much every one of the above will have a role somewhere.
Having lost so much of their senior talent, Rothschild is nowhere near where they used to be three years ago.
WallStreetOasis.com
From what I've seen, exits are similar between PJT/Laz/Moco/HL/Evr, but PJT is a cut above the other 4.
Heard Ducera is slaying
Opinions on Gugg Rx?
It's by far the best group for sovereign RXs