Making sense of this environment // Lateralling & exiting

Hello monkeys,

Given the current economic environment and numerous posts about cuts, I want to dive into the state of analyst lateral movements and recruiting at MMs, EBs & BBs.

It seems obvious that banks have recently been trying to cut seats rather than recruiting more juniors. Nevertheless, I am keen to ascertain whether this state of affairs is likely to become the new norm or if it is merely a temporary phenomenon.

Possessing a crystal ball is beyond our capabilities. Hence, let us dissect the matter and endeavor to make projections based on the following factors:

1. For how long has lateraling / junior recruitment been affected after precedent downturns (i.e. tech bubble, financial crisis and Euro-crisis)?

2. Was there a lot of lateraling and analyst recruiting before 2020 and 2021?

3. Assuming that the M&A market will experience a revival in the first half of 2024, will banks find themselves understaffed due to recent layoffs and subsequently have a pressing need to add juniors?

Is it likely that 2024 will be different than 2022 & 23? I don't know if I have to mentally settle at my current MM stint or if the environment for moving up will look better in the near future.

Thanks for your brain capacity.

KR