Heading for another oil shock?

Interesting article about another potential oil shock. There seems to be little doubt that this is a possibility, but our options thereafter are less clear.

Although America’s strengthening economy is better able to weather higher fuel costs, election-year politics is bound to bring pressure to “act” against high petrol prices. One misguided response would be a temporary cut in the petrol tax in an economy that already taxes fuel too lightly. (Far better to use the next price fall as an opportunity to raise the tax.) A more dangerous idea would be prematurely to release supplies from the country’s strategic oil reserves to dampen prices. Barack Obama did that last summer; the president will doubtless be tempted to do so again if petrol prices rise much further. At a time when there is a risk of a genuinely big supply disruption, from Iran, that would be reckless. The odds of averting a 2012 oil shock depend disproportionately on America keeping its cool, both at home and abroad.

I don't like how this author dances around the point and ends with the conclusion of "do nothing". He presents a structural problem (election year), and follows it with two options that policymakers might follow, both of which he argues are bad. Our petroleum reserve would last 34 days at current consumption, and if there really was a fear of Iran shutting off a large % of the world's supply, even stretching the reserve and buying elsewhere will be incredibly painful for us. Seems like we'll be using some of that oil again this summer.

What do you guys think? Are policymakers likely to dip into our reserves this summer before we hit $5/gallon?

Link to article