If Trump runs in 2024, do you think he can win?
Looks like talks are getting serious about this. Nobody from the republican party also wants to step up and run unless they have Trumps blessing. I think he may have a shot, but the issue is he has lost his platform (Twitter) to communicate with his supporters. Seems like there is a lot of hate for Biden right now.
I don't think Trump can win. He has a very energetic and passionate voter base, but his voter base is pretty small and while he has the influence to destroy a Republican candidacy by not blessing the candidate, I don't think he himself can gain the support of the large moderate base as well as other candidates. If anything, I think the 2020 election showed how turned off the moderate base was by Trump rather than Biden's likeability. That being said, there's no doubt Trump has reshaped part of the American electorate like no other and the Republicans will need to find a candidate who can do the fine dance between gaining the moderate vote and energizing Trump's base.
Agreed. If anything, I think Trump is a liability to the Republican Party for the 2024 elections. Although Trump can energize his base, Trump's polarizing nature would certainly energize some moderate and many left-leaning voters to come out to vote against him. And if Trump is not the Republican Party's candidate, I think his influence, as well as his volatility, can certainly sink the Republican candidate's election chances by either not giving his blessing to the candidate and as a result not energizing his voter base, or if he chooses to run as a third party, thus taking away a large Republican voter base.
I agree with you he can't win. But his base is estimated to be 38%-42% of the country. While he polls at 70% to 85% amongst Republicans guaranteeing him the Republican nomination. He did a lot of things that Republicans love. Just the supreme court is enough to get him a lot of votes. Republicans have been fighting Roe v Wade for 50 years and it might be overturned next year while gun rights cases are being brought to the court by Conservative groups.
To add even though Biden is polling near Trump level support now around 42%(538) I think Biden edges out Trump in a general just because moderates and independents don't want a crazy president.
I do believe though a Republican candidate like DeStantis or Rubio would be Biden quite easily.
In 2017, Trump supported a bill that would make tens of millions of red state poors (his base) pay 20% of their income to healthcare. They still voted for him. There is no limit to how much these people bootlick.
What would Trump even do in 2024? Cut taxes further?
When will they realize that this is not right?
Not sure if it's bugging on my end but half the counties don't appear to be filled in in your first visual.
For the second visual, it's including federal, state, and local taxes. Trump can only influence federal taxes, and I'd also wonder how much the growing profession of HNW tax lawyers impacts this visual. Also worth noting that 1950 was a stone's throw away from big govt. FDR who was the closest we've come to actually trying to overthrow democracy.
I think it's also worth noting that some people don't want help. They want to be independent and create a life for themselves. Maybe you want to WFH and live in your parent's basement but this isn't the mentality of everyone. "Free Money" comes with increased dependence which gives govt. free reign to ram quality of life to the ground (see Detroit, Baltimore, etc.). Finally, not everyone votes purely for taxes. You see that on this site a lot because everyone here is in very high paying jobs relative to the average. Get outside of this WSO bubble, and you'll find that many people vote primarily on social/religious issues.
If the inflation keeps rising in the long-term, even the most liberals will vote for him.
Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t this “transitory” inflation a result of spending undertaken by the Trump administration?
Would you be referring to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill or the currently fiercely debated Social Spending Bill?
Inflation still seems transitory to me once the supply chain bottleneck is resolved.
Not without his social media platform. No way he gets that same popularity boost he did without ridiculing other politicians on social media every hour of every day.
It's unlikely. He won in 2016 because he ran against a candidate who only escaped being the most unpopular candidate in history, because Mr Trump ran. The same way Mr Biden garnered "anti-Trump" votes, Trump got the Clinton haters. His entire Administration was a giant "Fuck You" to anyone and everyone who wasn't on their knees in front of him at all times; it seems nearly inconceivable that there is even a single voter who didn't vote for him in 2020 who would vote for him in 2024. In 2020 he had the advantage of incumbency, which is worth quite a bit.
In short, he's now a known quantity. This is also where his whole "lets overthrow the government" shtick is going to hurt him. If he acted with even a modicum of dignity and decorum on his way out of office, I'd actually argue he might be in decent shape for 2024. It'll be interesting to hear how revelations from that committee impact the electoral map in 2022.
Also, lets be honest - he's a senile man who has spent his whole life eating fast food and drinking soda. He could easily be dead in 3 years; Biden doesn't look so hot himself, and Trump makes him look like a 35 year old with perfect memory.
I think the biblical quote "Pride goeth before a fall" can summarize the last 6 months or so of Trump's administration. He started from the bottom of the barrel in 2016 and did won the presidency in a huge surprise. He had policy successes in the presidency, but ultimately his pride led him to being unable to even wear a mask at the height of a pandemic, hold rallies indoors, and more importantly not being able to concede in an election which in my opinion has sealed his fate. Let's not forget January 6, of course. At a minimum what happened that day was unprofessional, and arguably criminal as well.
I agree that Trump is a poor candidate, but Biden's presidency to date has even been more abysmal than Trump's first few years. I definitely could see people switching over who are hurt by inflation, crime, supply chain issues, gas prices and are ticked off with Biden's foreign policy and border management.
And I think generally speaking, even though Trump is a poor candidate, if Biden or Harris wins the DNC nomination, Trump may edge out, due to increased support from working class voters. I've head rumors that prominent donors are trying to set up Buttigieg to take the nomination, but given that we see where his priorities are with the allocation of the bipartisan infrastructure bill by focusing on "racist bridges" (a claim that even WaPo has qualms with), it's unclear whether he will have much of an appeal.
Of course the easy solution is to nominate anyone other than Trump and the GOP would have a good shot. Unfortunately, nobody seems brave enough to take out Trump head to head at least atm.
I agree on the whole... but what were his policy successes? He passed a tax cut which pretty abjectly failed to help anyone except the wealthy and corporate interests. That's about it.
Actually, I'd argue Biden has been far more successful than Trump. He's just as bad as communicating his successes as Trump was at taking credit for shit he never did.
Afghanistan was a nightmare - but again, few people seem to realize Mr Biden was following through on a Trump-era policy. The Pentagon seems to be of the opinion that the confusion of the evacuation aside (which, again - a major failure by Mr Biden), the Taliban was always going to regain control of the country under the terms of Mr Trump's treaty. That hasn't been well communicated at all.
Mr Biden has now passed in his first year in office a more important, impactful, and bigger piece of legislation than Mr Trump managed in four. And he's done it despite (or perhaps because) he isn't playing more golf than any President in history, doesn't spent most of his time tweeting and watching/calling into cable news, and isn't focusing his Administration on how to most effectively rob the American people.
I guess. Lets see where we end up in three years. Mr Trump shut down the government because he's a giant baby, and was convicted of betraying his oath of office twice, and a whole host of other crimes. Remember when he admitted on live television that he engaged in criminal behavior in order to shut down a possible investigation into other criminal behavior he had engaged in? Remember when he sent his private lawyer to trade political favors in return for digging up dirt on his political opponents, bypassing the State Department? Well, the voters didn't seem to care for long.
Biden may not live long enough either - he's reached the heights of his career, he's old, I can see him not running again, actually. Also, again.... Biden is passing/signing legislation that will actually help Americans. Three years from now the impacts of that may actually be felt and the messaging around it may improve.
I don't think this is true. Who are the GOP gonna nominate? Trump took advantage of something conservatives on this board seem reluctant to admit - that conservative/Republican voters in this country don't really care about policy and don't really care to learn about what their politicians are voting for. They're nativist, xenophobic, and care more about "winning" than about improving theirs or anyone else's lives. Which is why so many of them love their healthcare but hate "Obamacare". Trump tapped into this surge of feeling that the GOP (and, to be fair, the Democrats) are a bunch of selfish, globalist elites who don't care about the common person, and he channeled that feeling by directing all that rage and frustration against other people who look and think different, instead of into solving an actual problem. Who is the GOP going to turn to now? A Trump-lite? All the disadvantages without the advantages of the Trump name. A relatively centrist like Mr Youngkin? Please. That's the problem with Trumpism in general - it is, literally, a cult, and the GOP over the last 12 years has clung so tenaciously, and doubled down so consistently, on white frustration and anger that they can longer longer effectively appeal to anyone else. They're tent is one size, and to expand it is to lose the majority of the voters they've cultivated so assiduously.
I mean, how do you appeal to (say) Hispanic religious conservatives without admitting that maybe Mexican in this country aren't mostly rapists and murderers? With a more moderate candidate than Trump, you lose all the fervor that he managed to capitalize on. With someone like Trump, you lose some moderates and some of the Trump diehards. With Trump himself, you have the memory of the fact that he's a treasonous criminal.
The Republicans are going to do everything in their power to keep Trump sidelined, Trump's loud antics might energize his base but they won't pull the moderates back his way. DeSantis looks to be the Republicans best bet and considering all the posturing he has been doing lately my guess is that he'll run in 2024. Biden is unlikely to run again, probably didn't want to run in 2020 but he was the only chance the Democrats had at beating Trump. Moderates gave Trump a chance in 2016 simply because he was different and they were tired of the same old thing, Trump got a little off his rocker while in office so the Moderates essentially said "well we gave him a shot, back to the old guard" and voted for Biden. Assuming it's either Kamala or Biden that runs in 2024 all the Republicans need is a halfway sane candidate and they'll crush the Democrats considering all the infighting within the Democratic party and the considerable distain for the current administration given the polling numbers.
Fuck moderate Republicans
I think it will be either Trump or DeSantis to win it. This country is sick of Democrats right now.
Yes
Trump was excellent on the policy front, but was caustic enough to lose to an empty suit, 3x loser, who has been vocally wrong on every foreign policy issue for 50+ years, vowed to destroy the O&G industry, and clearly has dementia...Then turned out to be more of a disaster than anyone could have predicted once in office. Trump's more caustic now than he was in 2020 and may be the only candidate who independents and the few remaining non-retarded Dems would either refuse to vote for him or who would pull the lever for 4 more years of the current clusterfuckery.
Desantis should be the Republican nominee. Aside from the fact that he would beat Joe like a rented mule in the general (or Kamala who is less popular than Joe and less charismatic than Hillary somehow), he's an active fighter in the culture wars which animated the Trump base but is tactful in it enough not to turn off the suburban woman voter. It's possible that Trump could beat Joe after Joe's historically disastrous first-term, but Desantis is a sure winner and it's not worth the risk to have someone else run. The Dems are out of their goddamn minds and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near power - in fact, we should have the McCarthy hearings 2.0 and expunge the multitude of commies (socialist and commie are synonyms) in their ranks from society.
As a Republican Trump voter, was disappointed overall with his presidency. Trump was able to get the moderate/dem votes in 2016 by criticizing American politics and saying that he would "drain the swamp". Unfortunately, he sold a false bill of goods. As soon as Trump came into office, he ironically became a dick-sucking politician just like the rest of them. There was some reform, but I wish he would have really gutted it like he said he would. If we ever had a chance to lose some corruption, it was in his presidency, but nothing changed and look where we are now. With that being said, he's still light years ahead of anything the Dems could offer. I'm generally embarrassed as an American to be represented by Biden and Kamala. He can't even finish his own sentences, and tries to please everyone (liberals really got fooled by voting for him... he's barely even a democrat). I won't even get started on Kamala. Trump made an ass of himself in the debates, but at least he was proud to be an American and not a total pushover.
Same. I was hoping Trump would actually withdraw from NATO and start pulling open the CIA archives and gut entire federal agencies. Now I am beyond voting. The first sign something was after he was elected but before he was inaugurated he started purging the populists from his campaign and staffed his transition team with Bush-tier neocons and Zionist cretins.
No way on earth you'd actually be naive enough to think he'd pull us from NATO lol
Anybody who knows their history will see how we are living in a lite-version of the Weimar Republic right now. The way that ends is with mustache man, but how he was elected (yes, elected) is rarely studied and considered by non-historians. To summarize a very elaborate process, his election was the result of social decadence, economic depression (the likes of which the U.S. is very unlikely to see) and anger. The Treaty of Versailles, enabled a high level of embarrassment and essentially humiliated a people that were well-educated, intelligent (different things), hard-working and more importantly, that knew their history. Meaning they knew they were a great people. The French and the Americans made a severe mistake in attempting to pin everything on Germany, because they gave birth to their biggest nightmare. Notice how everything that has been done in modern Western history since then has been almost exclusively focused around avoiding another "Hitler moment" from happening; the Marshall Plan, the Euro, the European Union, etc. the world has learned their lesson with him and will do anything and everything to avoid him and anything like him from happening ever again. Hence why Trump, while his heart might genuinely be in the right place, is unlikely to ever achieve success again; movements like those of Trump are not progressive; I don't mean this in a political sense but in a worldly sense, Trump tried to slow down a train that was going 200 miles per hour himself and didn't even manage to slow it down to 190 miles per hour. Perhaps America needs a leader who can reorient that train towards the proper direction, all the while maintaining the speed and some order (something which Biden is not doing well, however, that is by design). Outside of superficial 'I'm 18 and know more about the world than you' concerns like being mean or not being an extreme socialist (i.e. American wine 'problems'), Trump did little wrong and little good, and this was more for the better. I think the elites or the powerful, etc. realized that Trump wasn't Hitler nor anywhere near what Hitler was like, but noticed that there was a faint smell of Hitler and decided it would be significantly better to avoid him from developing than finding out for themselves. In practice, Trump was not a threat, but his voter base is very strong and the risk of another mustache man is always there...
Whether you are right wing or left wing, it is important to recognize that at both extremes, the ideologies meet (horseshoe theory) and absolutists, whether they be Stalin, Hitler, Franco or Zedong, all end up behaving the same way: through committing genocide of one form or another. And that is bad for everyone involved.
Labore fuga voluptate rem laborum fugiat quis. Illo voluptatem odit suscipit iste vero dignissimos quas facilis.
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