Hey guys,
I have recently been listening to a lot of podcasts due to elongated commutes into the city (Toronto transit infrastructure blows). In all of the business podcasts I was listening to (Bloomberg Surveillance, Slate Money, Marketplace, etc.) they were discussing the horrific productivity numbers released last week. They were discussing how the increase in people and from that the proportional increase in human capital has historically lead to the ever-increasing productivity in the West. However, this lead me to question how conceivable endless prosperity truly is. Can we really continue to expand our population endlessly? Does this not have negative ramifications beyond simply raising GDP? Why are all of the "elites" so inline on this issue?
Anyways, I am not privy to all of the advanced maths they use to make these models, thus I'll take there word for it. Does this concern you all as well?
Here's how I look at it. GDP growth is broken into two parts, growth from population increases and growth from productivity increases. If you have more people making shit, you make more shit; if one guy can make more shit; you make more shit.
Throughout the last century we've had extreme advances in both areas. This led to a GDP expansion never before seen on Earth. However, as you said, population can't grow forever and it especially can't grow forever in the already developed nations. So all we have left is productivity growth. We have to get better at making more with what we have. If we can't do that, our economy is at risk of stagnating and resources will flow to places that still have potential for both growth areas.
The issue I have is that a believe the productivity numbers (for humans) will eventually reach a maximum and given the growth rates in the West that point seems to be fairly near. However, I am not entirely sure we're doing a very good job at quantifying productivity in terms of machines, algorithms, phones, AI etc. The population side of things is just terrifying to me. The thought we should just increase the population and immigration indefinitely seems short-sited. Thanks for your input.
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