Follow Boss or go off on my own? Experienced advice needed

Hey guys, I’ve been an active member of this forum but created an anonymous account to ask this question as I prefer to stay anonymous.

Off to the races - I’m an associate at a buy-side shop focused on a niche sector (not your typical 2+ out program). Recently there’s been some changes at the top-end, my initial boss is still here with us but they plotted in a senior hire recently above him and he’s overseeing this niche sector together with a couple other groups. It’s been our thinking that the firm as a whole is not too fond of what we focus on given some historic investments made (based on the team before us) are all in red and under water and continue to face issues. All the investments that we’ve made are doing great but based on some naïve sense, they’ve seen what we focus on as potential trouble for the firm. My spidey sense tells me I feel like an axe is coming sooner or later for our whole team despite our outperformance (for our current team).

Long story short, we’ll continue have to make our case as to why we’re needed here but on the side, my boss has asked me (and 1-2 others) to see if I have interest to join him if he goes off to another firm and I said yes. This was probably 3-4 months ago…

I’ve asked for updates monthly to see if things are progressing and he’s keeping it very vague and just said ‘it’s progressing’ without giving me anything more. We still continue to be busy at our current shop but my eyes are set on this new opportunity ready to jump ship. It’s been a little troublesome for me to follow him in the dark if I don’t know what’s going on on the outside. I’ve tried to probe him a couple times on the process outside but he’s still keeping me in the dark and it’s really bothering me.

What would you guys do in your scenario? I don’t want to be caught off guard if I do happen to get laid off soon without a job as I have bills to pay and family to take care of. At the same time, I’m looking forward to this potential new opportunity to start something new and make an impact with my boss given we have a great track record.

If you were me, would you continue to stick around this firm and continue to wait until my boss makes a decision? Or would you guys start interviewing with other firms on the side, and once an offer is received, you show it to the boss and then tell ask him to tell you where exactly he is in the process with the new firm opportunity…

One hindering factor I can think of might be because bonus payouts is this quarter end but it stresses me out since I know I’m not going to stick around this firm so have completely lost my motivation working for this firm. And the fact I’m not in the loop of the conversations he’s having with these new opportunities boils me a little bit as well.

Would appreciate your guys advice and especially the ones that have experienced these situations (understand it might be rare).