How Cooked is Software PE?

There’s been discussion on this topic before, but I wanted to reignite the chat as recruitment rolls around for intern and associate classes.

How risky would it be to go to a software-focused tech PE shop like Hg, Vista, or TB at this moment in time? Concerned that commoditized software products are being completely decimated by AI, and that, compounded with the ludicrous 2021-era entry valuations, most of these investments may end up total crap, even at the top shops.

A few questions:

  1. Is it possible to go from those types of shops to a tech-enabled services or hardware-adjacent shop? Or something with physical assets? Or are you stuck working in bits rather than atoms?
  2. Would it be more advisable to go somewhere that focuses on real asset/infra-type investments within the industrials or infra/energy space?
  3. Would it just be advisable to stick to banking at this point if you’re in tech?

My thinking here is that “technology,” broadly defined as a sector, will always have the strongest upside since it’s at the bleeding edge of innovation. But on the application front, that’s going to look more like the automation of labor itself via agents, robots, etc. And then of course there’s hardware, semis, optics, etc. (look at the massive Marvell deal the other day). Tech is still great, but software specifically has fallen on hard times right now.

There might also be interesting opportunities in tech special sits considering the state of a lot of software PortCos.

Thanks all! Want to spur an interesting discussion here on career outlook and what it even means to be a tech investor.

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