Moat of modelling in PE/Finance completely vanished;
I never believed it myself but I am vibe-modelling myself with Claude now.
I started college in ~2016 and I remember how hard it was back then to get really good at programming (e.g., statistics classes) and also financial modelling. Tons of hours of efforts went into mastering excel and all kinds of formulas. I used to study them from videos and take notes on different examples, etc.
All of that vanished. I recently saw an absolutely clueless intern (nepo girl) build a rather good three statement model on some subsidiary spin-offs. At the beginning I thought she is rather cracked, seeing all the formulas, but then I realized that she did nothing of this herself. Every datapull, every sumifs, every complex index-match, etc., all from the claude plugin. Even the three statement model itself with the raw data the client handed to us, everything was done by claude.
Kinda scary but I truly think modelling is just a commodity now.
// edit: anticipating questions. Right now I just 'vibe-modelled' bunch of annoying data gathering stuff. I.e., I had tons of input sheets and I wanted a few clean output tables.
Think of 10 different sub verticals/markets, 15 different regions, where partners want to have insight into each. It takes 2mins to let Claude build a table. How would we have done that 10 years ago? Tons of cleaning/manual gathering with Indirects, etc. - I think this would have taken at least 1h.
Always has been…it’s table stakes. Using a model to think commercially about a business / transaction is a different skillset, and something Claude can’t teach. My analysts do the same thing - semi-polished output on the surface, over engineered garbage in the inside. Can’t explain why things are built the way they are. And god forbid something busts and they wouldn’t even know where to look for the issue
Yeah we just tell folks, Claude can’t get fired but you can
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