Stay for 3rd year or Lateral

Just had my mid-year review at a MM fund (1.5 years in) Was told I was doing well and that they would be happy to have me stay for a 3rd year, though no clarity on whether a VP promote would come after that. Organization is mid-level heavy, and one of the other associates in my class is getting promoted directly to VP.

I don't want to go to business school and ideally would stick around somewhere where I have upward mobility.

Any advice on whether it is worth staying around a 3rd year despite an unclear/unlikely path to VP, or whether I should leave at the 2 year mark to somewhere that gives me more clarity? Current pay is 300 all in and would expect 10-15% increase in 3rd year.