Any thoughts on the CMBS space? -early stage career questions

Hi all,

I am in the early stages of my career and I have an opportunity to work in CMBS origination/underwriting at a bank that is one of top 20 CMBS originators, but on the lower end of the top 20. They also have a balance sheet lending group. While the good news it that they seem to be on a hiring spree, a bit unusual at this stage of the cycle and have also survived the massacre that killed tons of CMBS shops., however, my concern is that with risk retention, the CMBS space is going to structurally change where there will be severe contraction, and it wont be as impactful as it once was and not finance 25% of CRE as it always has and there will be fewer players in the space. Last year, only half the lenders contributes loans to CMBS deals compared to 2016. Are my concerns valid? If you were in the early stages of your career today, how would you feel about being in the CMBS originations, underwriting space? Really appreciate your help, thank you!

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