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I'm not too familiar with the residential side, but I believe a number of the forbearance programs out there provided 3-6 months full payment deferral, with the total deferred payments due at the end of the relief period. 6 months of payment due in a lump sum sounds pretty rough to me. With that said, I'm not 100% sure if that's still the case. I read on housing wire not long ago that the GSEs would be allowing refinances after borrower's had made a few months of consecutive payments, but I think this was primarily residential/home loans
I'm guessing you're primarily asking about CRE though. For MF lending, the two main programs I've heard about are:
I don't expect to see an increase in foreclosures on the MF side.. Most of our clients are reporting collections at or above past numbers. Less people are willing to move and the unemployment boost helped people keep the lights on. Now, who knows come July/August, we'll start to see the real economic figures come out as Q3 wraps up
I'll let someone else comment on non-MF CRE. I assume Hotels and Retail will be hit pretty hard
I can confirm this is generally true for banks, we have allowed 3 months of deferred payments in this first go round (ranging from deferral of principal, to, in some cases, deferral of interest and escrows). We will likely extend deferrals on some of these, So far, the OCC seems to be giving a lot of leeway.
I don't see how there won't be a lot of hotel foreclosures.
What I'm seeing from CMBS special servicers is 3 months of payment deferral. Has to be paid back in 6 to 12 months. Will start to see a lot of foreclosures/DIL/receiverships in the next few months. A lot of smaller hotel owners are already starting to hand the keys back. COVID delayed the first wave of foreclosures as courts were closed and foreclosures weren't deemed essential. Another wave will hit after the 3 months of no debt service burns off. Hotels and class b/c malls are getting hit the hardest.
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