GSE are going to be rather different in 2021. Good news for you CMBS shops!

If you haven't seen the new FHFA scorecard for Multifamily, it has significantly limited the agencies ability to compete for non-mission business. Which is a fancy way of saying you won't be seeing aggressive agency quotes on Class A business or anything that does not have some affordability to it.

Good news for CMBS and other lending flavors that work to get solid Class A, B and some decent class C apartments. I think you'll start to notice an uptick in volume heading your way.

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Last year the cap was $100B per each agency over 5 quarters (so ~$80B per year), with the requirement of at least 37.5% mission driven. The 2021 Cap is $70B per agency, but 50% must be mission driven, and of that 50% - at least 20% must be 60% AMI. They've also redefined mission so its 80% AMI nationwide, so no longer consider 100-120% AMI as you'd see in HCOL like San Fran and NYC, etc.

So this all boils down to - the agency's next year can do $35B of Class A business. But only if they do $35B in mission driven - but the mission driven is radically changed so that $35B in mission is going to be a higher bar to clear/obtain, so they aren't going to be doing as much Class A.

 

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