Nitya Capital in 2026: Extend & Pretend with a simultaneous buying boom?
Been following the old apartment syndicator threads and curious what people think the play is now.
From the outside it looks like extend and pretend. Refi, forbearance, mod, repeat, and just hold on until rates drop or a recession flips the cycle, then sell the workforce housing at a decent number. Is that really it? Or is there something smarter going on that I'm missing?
The part that gets me is that Nitya's founder, Swapnil Agarwal, is apparently personally guaranteeing some of these refis. That seems insane. If a couple go sideways, couldn't he lose everything personally? Why would you do that instead of handing back keys on the worst deals? I remember him supposedly making an account here and talking smack to everyone so maybe its ego and him not wanting realized losses?
On the other hand, they've been buying again lately, supposedly at loan basis with seller financing at low rates. Buying at today's basis with cheap debt honestly sounds like it could work out. The 2021 vintage got wrecked like everyone else's, and yeah, the founder is famously cringe and hated on here. But that's a separate question from whether these new deals are good.
Their track record page is worth a look too, sorted by most recent exits: https://nityacapital.com/track-record?sort=exited&dir=desc#track-record
So 3 questions:
- What do you think of the new deals they're doing? Can the new distressed buys carry the firm into a real second act, or is it the same playbook?
- What happens to the 2021–22 vintage refis? Do those LPs ever see their money again?
- Does Nitya really still have 0 realized losses?
I think the answers to your questions are situational and no one has a crystal ball.
Ultimately if his assets don't get foreclosed, then there will be a point where the assets will be able to perform to refinance the debt. Will the LPs get their capital back? Maybe. Depends entirely on the runway. I'm assuming lack of new supply will eventually lift rents and at some point rates will fall. When that happens, the LP will probably be made whole with little return.
Is their strategy to buy up existing inventory at a discount pay off? I'd hope so but again depends on the investment horizon.
What's with the AI slop with a clear agenda? More than 60% of their current portfolio was acquired in 2021/2022. Good luck with that sub-4.0% cap rates in oversupplied markets.
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