Phoenix?
Saw Phoenix jumped Philly for fourth most populous city.
Curious— is there another draw to the city outside of lifestyle? i.e. tech in Austin
What is its edge on other cities? Will it be a skeleton in the desert 10 years from now?
It's proximity to California helps Phoenix tremendously. They've taken a lot of jobs/companies from California and the weather is pretty good outside of summer. Still very affordable relative to California. I do wonder if migration will decline to Phoenix and also Vegas if summers start to get even warmer.
I could see it being a great California alternative.
I wonder how it compares to the business culture / prestige of other cities like a Chicago or Miami.
I’m a midwesterner so I’m not in tune with the Southwest
It seems like a top 10 place to live in the US. Definitely see the appeal, but have to like open space, warm weather, and the desert. It's a good value play but if money is no object, still tough to beat So Cal, NYC, S Florida.
Definitely not in the same category as Chicago or Miami and unlikely we see it ascend to that category in the future. Dallas & Miami seem to have huge momentum atm.
For folks in the MW & NE, you’re trading brutal winters for brutal summers. Some people will take the hot over the cold.
City is overall very easy to get around. It’s a flat grid. Natives will attest that traffic has gotten worse, but it’s still nothing compared to other metros.
Still a relatively competitive COL despite rapid rent growth. Avg unit sizes are large and livable.
Really good food scene IMO
Sonoran desert is a very unique landscape. Beautiful in its own right
I’ve had family in the metro for 30 years and have spent a lot of time out there. I personally think it’s a great place to live (for a period of time ;) )
Lets see what happens when the city/state stops subsidizing water usage.
Same way Florida migration patterns will change when the state/national taxpayers stop subsidizing homeowners
I earned my Southwest A List preferred status flying to Phoenix and LA region from SF, and spent considerable time in PHX, including dealing with finding sites, entitlements, and managing a workforce and doing business development. Also, my very first real estate transaction I worked on was an Archstone apartment development in Southeast Phoenix (Loop 202) area 20 years ago.
I think Phoenix’s advantage to becoming a big city is availability of land that allows development in all directions. Compare that geography to San Francisco or Seattle and you have the dynamic of lower income people living far away, having to cross bodies of water to get to their jobs in the high income / business areas.
In Phoenix, you can find 1980’s built workforce housing (privately owned, not government housing projects) within three miles of luxury SFR homes on one acre plots. And there would be still open tracts of land in between.
The advantage is the abundance of land supports income diversity, which is appealing for immigrants.
From a real estate investment perspective, back in 2016, I had this saying “70% the revenue of the Bay Area, 50% of the cost.” So I looked at the relative value of PHX and liked the attributes (quick flight, growing, more streamlined regulations and city services).
Notably, if you want an example of a decently well run Democrat controlled city, it is Phoenix. Something like 10 out of 12 districts are D.
Back in the early days of the city, Scottsdale was the “white” town and Phoenix was for everyone else. The cities grew so that they melded together.
A lot of migration happened from the Midwest, rust belt. A lot of that started with them buying vacation homes in AZ and then eventually moving there and starting families. But I’d say, up until 2010’s, Phoenix had the seasonality feel to the economy and real estate driven, but more and more it is becoming a year around economic powerhouse. I think the outsourcing trend (from California) was a catalyst, and now we’re are seeing more manufacturing (TSMC factory plans).
Lastly, the availability of land has allowed the formation of naturally occurring affinity group communities to thrive. Much like LA’s growth was fueled by areas of the city that was Koreatown, Little Tokyo, Melrose-Fairfax district, the automobile companies of South Bay, Winchester, etc; the sprawl in Phoenix help create a large Mormon population center in Gilbert, Chandler and Mesa areas. SoCal lifestyle in Scottsdale and the Biltmore. Workforce living in central PHX. Sun City retirement in the Northwest PHX. Tracts of affordable, entry homes in the West and Avondale. Multimillion dollar homes in Arcadia, Paradise Valley.
Water is a problem. A lot of the water comes not just from the rapidly depleting Colorado River, but also the White Mountains to the east.
A pretty interesting living set up from talking to Uber drivers is to live in Las Vegas / Phoenix and during the summer live overseas in a lower cost country.
Anyways what fueled Phoenix’s growth is low cost living that creates a situation where there’s something for everyone. It’s all “greenfield” development.
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