In real estate, similar to wall street, once bisnow is covering a "hot market" it's usually a little to late. Not always, but generally speaking brokers have managed to mark up underwriting assumptions to a point where the upside is definitely limited.
Curious whether anyone has any interesting news sources/information sources that they use to uncover trends that haven't been largely publicized yet.
Socialize with owners, developers, and municipal officials, and ignore brokers. Brokers aren't going to be honest with you, and as you say, even if you get credible info from them, they've already priced it in.
Word of mouth is the only way to front run the news. Unless you actually are a reporter (in which case your livelihood relies on not losing a scoop), whatever you see on the front page is literally yesterday's news. The only people who can give you real info about what is happening tomorrow are the people driving the business, and those are folks on the equity and development side, or the folks running the entitlement process who they deal with.
oh no not this again
Haha.
Well no matter your opinion, a broker isn't sharing inside information with a buyer without adjusting their price to account for it.
I don't even know what that means. Are you back to talking about brokers sneakily hiding deferred maintenance or something? This thread is more about market knowledge, which I've also found brokers to be the best one-stop shop for.
yeah this just doesn't make any sense to me... sorry some sleazy M&M guy stole your GF or whatever bad experience made you this way
I'm generally curious as to what you don't understand. You seem to view my dislike of brokers as some irrational witch hunt, and have completely ignored any subsequent point I'm trying to make.
If I am a IS broker and have a listing, and I learn some material, non-public information that meaningfully increases the value of what I'm marketing, then my first order of business is to talk to my client and discuss increasing the listing price. Not to call half my phone book and let them know what a steal the deal is. To do otherwise would be irresponsible to the client whose listing you have.
All that is well and good, but to the OPs point (or what I read it as), this means brokers are a bad source of information for that kind of news, because it means you can't monetize that information. It has nothing to do with my interactions with brokers, personal or professional, it's common sense and if it wasn't it would be said investment sales broker doing a disservice to their client.
If you want to hear news ahead of publication, and moreover, news that can help your business, talk to the people creating value in deals. Owners who might be doing a large development in an area, but haven't filed for permits. Municipal officials thinking about upzoning an area for higher density, or a different use. Industry lawyers who think rulings on various statutes or laws are before a judge and might be changed or opened for re-interpretation.
If I hear that Neighborhood X is going to have it's permissible density doubled, that is a MAJOR incentive for me to buy. If I hear it from a municipal official, it means there's a chance that said change hasn't been priced into sales prices. If I hear it from a broker, I'm going to end up still paying market.
If the goal is to better understanding existing trends, like where values are rising or rents falling, by all means, brokers are the best source, because they're often the most direct contact with buyers/renters and their attitudes.
I just don't think you've ever dealt with a good broker.
If I want to learn about stuff that isn't already published news in a market, yeah I could cold call all the developers and investors and ask them to tell me (their competition) everything they know, or I could just call my trusted broker in that market who already spends a huge amount of time meeting/networking/gossiping/drinking/doing deals with all the local players and get what I need with 1 phone call.
I guess if a broker has a specific listing and inside info that affects that listings price, then yeah they are going to price that information into their guidance, but that's a very specific situation and not what the OP is asking. I could just as easily say you can't just call up local investors/developers and ask for inside info because why would they give it to their competition?
Again, I just don't think you've ever interacted with a good broker. The last time you tried to argue with me about this in a thread I got like 30 SBs and you got 30 MSs, so maybe you're the one being stubborn and ignoring the points being made.