Will NYC rent drop this summer?

Before I start, I will admit my knowledge on this topic is limited so if these are "obvious" questions, pardon me.

My lease is up at the end of this summer, and I was just giving some thought on the NYC rental market. Prices tank during Covid with sweetheart deals, obviously, then skyrocket back as the "rush" back to NYC occurs.

While firms have been pushing more and more folks to go back to office, which is obviously an upward pressure on rent prices, the last few months had me wondering. Mass layoffs in tech that are still ongoing, layoffs in finance, the collapse of SVB, now down goes CS. That's a lot of people impacted.

I'm curious if those who are smarter than I in the real estate space think rents will come down by end of summer? For context, I am looking at a 1 bedroom apartment in Manhattan in the 4-5k range.

Thanks all

Comments (16)

Most Helpful
DisgruntledAppraiser, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Not likely to drop in a meaningful way. Prices would drop if supply of available units far exceeds renter demand. Right now, there is nothing really to suggest that this scenario would be the case. Layoffs don't automatically mean those people are removed from the total population needing housing in NYC. Summer also means recent college graduates moving to NYC to start careers. NYC still is a great place to find employment, which means rents are not projected to fall in a big way any time soon. 

CTLax45, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Rents will still be highly elevated during the summer leasing season. Rents are still trending directionally higher, and while their might be less craziness than Summer 2022 for NYC, rent fundamentals are still going strong.

  • Analyst 3+ in RE - Comm

If you're expecting rents to drop around COVID-levels, those deals are long gone. But your budget is $4-5k for a one bedroom...you have your pick of the litter with this range.

Now why you would consider dropping that much on monthly rent is another question (that I don't need an answer to), but you do you.

  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A

People on this forum always mention how paying this much on rent is a massive stretch and not a great decision, but the median rent for a 1-bedroom in Manhattan is $4k. So clearly a majority of people living in the city end up making the decision to spend that much? Otherwise rents would not be at that level, unless I am completely missing something.

I get people sometimes flex a 1-bedroom, or live with an S/O, but is that truly the majority of people renting a 1-bed in manhattan?

I am trying to make sense of the disconnect and it's not clear to me. 

MedDoc1988, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Hell no!!! You might be right that the prices won't rise at a rate as fast as they did, but the rent prices surely aren't going to decline. It's simple supply and demand. Sure, there are mass layoffs in tech and finance, but the majority of Manhattanites have safe jobs and aren't looking to leave. Btw, rent in the summer is always expensive to find a lease, especially in New York. Good luck tho...

Ozymandia, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Listed prices won't come down.  Concessions might.  It is probably too early to start negotiating with your landlord, since they'll want to see what happens over the summer too, but you can always go to them a few months early and ask to extend your lease, and probably get a slight discount or at least another concession.  It costs your landlord a lot of time and money to turn your unit, so it's perfectly reasonable to ask them for the same deal they'd give a new tenant, and a little bit extra maybe

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swae, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I started a lease in Manhattan last summer and the landlord has already asked us for a 10% rent increase a few months in advance, so I would assume prices won't be coming down.

Also for others reading, does this seem like an above market rent increase? It's a 10% increase to a price from June 2022, and I am curious if others are agreeing to rent increases from last summer at all or for lower amounts

jbsmiles14, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I feel like they won't drop in my opinion. It will only go up...but you never know when there will be another covid-like event.

PEarbitrage, what's your opinion? Comment below:

No, merely due to seasonal demads.  However, do I believe that the rents will continue to surge?  That is less certian, but I feel the answer is no.  We are looking at rents being flat for the the next 18 months on our multi portfolio in the city.

Backoffice_Boss, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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