Crude Oil Supply / Demand Model - Advice
About to start a fall internship and wanted to get some prep in. I wanted to model out a crude supply and demand model to mathematically prove the bullish sentiment. I would love some pointers as to how such a thing could be done (sourcing supply / demand info and how to consolidate it, how to forecast, etc.) Feeling quite lost and don't know where to start so any pointers would be great.
Begin by defining what an SnD is. Look at the EIA weekly report to see what the basic pieces are (the report itself has a lot of garbage numbers but the layout (production, runs, movements, and stock change) are logical. Then source data for each of those things for the entire world. Then once you have historical data make models to forecast based on some framework of how the world works. How does it work? That’s a trade secret. Good luck finding your own approach. But beware that because of bad data quality in oil, a global macro supply and demand that is even remotely accurate or relevant to any trade signal has proven elusive to even the most experienced analysts and sophisticated organizations.
Well then the question goes...how does someone young in their career differentiate themselves in the analyst role? I'm going to guess it isn't just making some crazy pandas model
Actually it is, every intern who is successful is someone who comes in and understands their main job is to make everyone else’s jobs easier. Typically that is technical skills others do not have and ability to automate things. Other than that reading books like “King of Oil, or World for Sale” helps understand the history and get an idea of what kind of environment it will be.
how do you get China demand
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