23 Comments
 

LEAP Puts on $NVDA. It's priced as an AI/Self-Driving/Machine Learning stock yet they bring in revenue for making video-gaming cards for PC gamers.

Array
 

They are definitely the leading AI chip company right now. The question is will then be in 2-5 years. I have no clue. 95% of hardware companies crash and burn (even after great growth. Intel crash 85% from their 2000 highs and still have no regained that price and they dominated their industry. Cisco did something similar as a load of alumni decided to put up their own shingle and compete.

Blackberry crashed and never recovered. Chipmakers as a whole Love to crash for years then go on huge runs. The only hardware company to avoid crashing in in the last 20 years was Apple but they transitioned to a platform/luxury brand.

Nvda does have some issues on how much cryptos have loaded up their profits. This quarter may be fine but with cryptos down 65% I would expect a hiccup the next few quarters. Intel makes a lot more money than NVDA. If AI is real and big I would expect Intel to boost their r and d in that space to compete longer term.

I guess my point is Nvda has a nice lead right now and perhaps 18-30 months ahead of the competition but longer term success will bring competition and some very well funded competition.

I would be nervous owning Nvda now. I also question if the Nvda guys are geniuses. 2 years ago they sold convertible bonds that ended up costing them 8 billion (would be 20 billion now). Their leadership didn’t even see the potential in their chips a few years ago that they thought it was prudent to save 50 bps on a bond deal while risking massive dilution.

 

RICK

Disclaimer for the Kids: Any forward-looking statements are solely for informational purposes and cannot be taken as investment advice. Consult your moms before deciding where to invest.
 

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