Is physical trading becoming overhyped?
With the high schooler post that surprisingly got a lot of engagement and the recent post about the ags guy who is only been in the business for 6 years thinking he has enough experience and a big enough rolodex to go out on his own, do the experienced commodity traders on this site think we've reached the top?
Just typical cyclical rhetoric
Physical sucked during the 2010's and now we're in a supercycle, so everyone thinks they're tough when they up. Next bust phrase and we'll go back to the PE jerkoff circle
Its not that difficult to go out on your own in something like Ags. High school kid read “world for sale” so hes hyped.
We have a labour shortage similar to banking in 2021 q1, so lets see where we are in 2023 q1. I doubt the labour shortage is fixed.
is there not enough desperate ops/risk guys to fill trader seats?
The main lack of talent is on the origination side and good ops people who are moving into physical trading. Basically customers need more creative solutions and not everyone has the skillset.
Yes and no. If we're in a supercycle then we are really at the rock bottom ground floor imo. There is the issue of nominal GDP growth being way overheated right now and the Fed having to smoke everybody, I think we're headed into a pretty staggering pullback in commodities, at least for a few months to a year. But next 10-20 years? Hard not to be bullish.
Not in physical (power prop) but market is pretty hot right now trading virts. Pretty bullish on my end and starting pay is more than BB S&T
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