Hi monkeys, thanks to all the contributors (Monty, Goodbread, Marcellus_Wallace, and others) for their content and comments over the years. I’ve gained a lot of valuable career advice and had a few laughs as well.
I’ve been working as a natural gas analyst my entire career. I’ve done okay – consistent top bucket, in and out of analyst ranking on Bloomberg, and I think making decent calls has gotten me a reputation as a good analyst in the business. I’m constantly getting headhunter contacts for new positions as a fundamentals guy but my eye has always been on a trading seat. And there’s the dilemma. At my current shop I have the word of management that as soon as we grow our business to a certain level, or if one of the current traders leaves, the next cash trading/jr. trader seat is mine. I’ve also recently been contacted by a former colleague for another analyst seat and negotiated up to a combination cash trader/fundamentals role. However, this new shop is barely off the ground and unlikely to ramp to the level of my current shop. Additionally, I feel an obligation to current management on a personal level and really do trust them that the seat is mine when the day comes. To complicate matters further, the ‘jr analyst’ we’ve hired to eventually backfill my seat is very sharp – it leaves a lot more empty space in my day than before so waiting around for the seat to open up is even more anxiety inducing.
What do you guys think? Stick around at the bigger, better shop until the seat opens up (12-18 months, likely). Or YOLO, this is what I’ve been working towards, go for the smaller/riskier shop and seize the seat? Happy to answer clarifying questions to the extent that it doesn’t reveal too much about who/where I am.
Further, I’m happy to answer any questions around a NG fundamentals seat specifically and the business more generally
Nearly two months later - here's an update: I decided to decline the smaller shop's offer. They ended up getting set back about a year after I declined so in the end I think I dodged a bullet.
Do you have an analyst book to express your fundi ideas in?
New_Guru
Hey was wondering if you could shoot me a private message I have specific questions I would like to ask you about your role as a natural gas analyst, I have been scheduling for two years and really don't see a quick way into a trading role and feel working as a analyst would broaden my knowledge of the industry.
sent you a pm
Not at this shop - though I do directly see my ideas getting expressed in trades. I also see the exact opposite sometimes, but that's the nature of the beast sometimes.
Just saw this. Pretty common scenario in commodities as far as I can tell and though I am in metals I can definitely relate.
I think you need to ignore the "owing management one" voices. The feeling is understandable, but ultimately it's your career and management won't have any qualms about quitting on your group if they decide the grass is greener elsewhere.
What I think it really comes down to is where you see the highest long-term opportunity. There is value in the brand of bigger shops in the commodity space and the longer you stay at a big shop (without it looking like you are on the perma-ops track), the likelier other firms will jump at the chance to hire you if you do decide to leave.
I realize that the natty space probably has a wider spread of top players, but to give you an extreme example, someone in ags at Cargill or metals at Glencore should think extra hard before they jump the gun and go somewhere else (assuming it does look like they'll pick up a seat like in your case).
thanks GB - in the end I realized the best long-term opportunity is at my current shop. thankfully volatility has picked up in NG a bit as of late so I think for now I'm just going to keep my head down and try to help make $ for the desk. I do believe the day is coming where the cash trading seat opens up - and I don't think waiting around would be perceived as the perma-ops track
if you want to trade, you should start acting like a trader.
start a paper trading / sim account...and publish your trade ideas (with prices) in realtime to a limited audience that you trust, and ask for feedback to start a dialogue.
Include your rationale for every trade entry with stop / target levels / conditions. If you think this is "too much work"...well...thats what traders do 24/7....thats the entire job...even if they are mostly doing it in their head.
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