I have been wanting do this for some time, and finally have decided to risk some money on the idea. I have always believed (and many psychologists agree) that people tend to overestimate the probabilities of low chance events, and underestimate the probabilities of high chance events.
Since sports odds are based on supply and demand, I feel that this is the perfect arena to test this theory out. That is why I devised this experiment.
I am going to start with 100 quid, and everyday bet the minimum (2 quid) on teams with high implied probabilities of winning, under the theory that these probabilities are too low.
I will track the daily P&L on my site.
I also plan to develop more extensive strategies as I go along, and was wondering if any monkeys wanted to throw their hats into the ring with ideas.
Wouldn't the probability already be priced in to the wager? Vegas is smart as hell you know.
The principle is that odds are set by market forces, therefore there is a divergence between implied probabilities and actual probabilities.
Sorry, didn't look up Betfair's business model.
Liquidity could be an issue - some of the markets with the best value are thin on liquidity at Betfair. Moreover, it precludes one from being able to dabble on parlays/accumulators (especially for events running simultaneously)...
interesting idea, but I bet it is already done via trading robots on the site.
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