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What? Sorry, I couldn't hear you over the sound of my money printer running in the background.
your first false assumption is that economic forecasters are smart to begin with
i used to sit next to one of them...actually....2 of them...at different banks...and i used to see them on CNBC fairly often.
Both times the desk/bank economist (they have a seat on the treasury desk off to the side) used to work as an economist at the NY Fed. These guys generally are smart....but they are 100% academic, and refuse to get into certain "minutia" fearing it might bias their economic research..
I read academic econ forums pretty often and they say having a phd is not needed at all for being a bank forecaster. Econ forecasting is considered irrelevant in the academic world because it's way more an art than a science (ie frequently unreliable but some people do have a feel for it). Some bank forecasters are people with a substantial academic background like ironnchef said but the job is looked down upon by some phds because the work has nothing to do with phd level research. Some of the best bank forecasters are people with just a bachelors.
Also, why do financial news quote people that just make soundbites for financial advisors to use with their clients (don't mean you lol) plus actually credible people frequently in the same article? I can just go on my brokerage account if I want to hear the opinion of their strategists lol.
The Fed has inflated the market to extremes. Every time we had a horrendous jobless claims report, futures were green in the AM on Thursday b/c the Fed announced some new repo operation at the same time the numbers were released. Unemployment report understated by 300bps? Doesn't surprise me and the market probably won't reprice itself to account for the news. I'm praying for a full economic recovery but there are so many macro risks that are being discounted that it's insanely hard to believe bulls will keep buying at SPX 3200. Then again, bears are probably bankrupt on their shorts from fighting the Fed so who knows what'll happen.
The last time I actually thought economists knew anything about anything I think I was like 17.
No skin in the game -> No wisdom
LOL they got marching orders to make things look rosy
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