So this is a far cry from the earlier estimate... do you all think this projection is accurate? I mean in total it's not a lot of people compared to the US population, but christ, that's still a good amount of people.
Thoughts?
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I actually think the "second wave" of infections/deaths won't happen until after we end quarantine/stay at home orders. Also, I do not understand the obsession only with death rates when there are reports, rumors, etc that this virus causes substantial lung damage, male fertility damage, etc. Not that anyone will take that seriously because studies cannot be done on the long term affects. If it's even 50% as bad as HIV in neutralizing the immune system, the long term health problems are going to be a bigger issue than deaths in 2020.
It doesn’t seem to attack our immune systems permanently. As I understand it, people who have been infected and fully recover become immune to it. Which means their immune system is functional.
There’s no vaccine possibility for HIV
I read that even if you recover from Covid-19, you can still be tested positive again...
Love him or hate him, but by now everyone should recognize that President Trump is a spin master. My gut feelings on these projections are that we just don't have enough data on the virus yet, and I think the data that we do have was massaged to project higher numbers than actual. I think President Trump wants to be able to proclaim this summer right before the election that his measures and strong response led to a much lower death toll.
He's got nothing to gain by predicting a death toll of 10k right now and having that get blown out of the water because irrational fear is already rampant, but he's got a lot to gain by "beating" large projections this summer, just before the election.
Damn, that’s a solid take. I didn’t even think about that. I haven’t been focusing on COVID a whole lot but it makes a lot of sense.
50k deaths? Normally that’s atrocious. But he can point and say, “See. All those scientists and the media said 250k. Wrong. I’m awesome and personally did a triple backflip through laboratories and released the cure for everyone”
Trump and the scientists showed that with no mitigation and if Trump hadn't cut travel from China (something many in the media said was bad/racist and subsequently now look like idiots) that the death toll would be over two million deaths in the US. He didn't create any model, the numbers were reported to him and they came from universities, are you paranoid or something? TDS is crazy and a serious condition- PLEASE seek help
If you are incapable of contributing intelligently, it's best not to contribute.
First: nobody likes or respects a coward. If you want to engage in productive discourse, don't hide in anonymity.
Second: this isn't about me agreeing or disagreeing with the President. In fact, I generally agree with many of his decisions. Just pointing out that a model is only as accurate as the assumptions/data that we include/base it on. Trump / his cabinet are smart individuals and know that if they aren't proactive about making the data serve their purposes, the opposition will.
You're an idiot.
Dude, personal attacks are not a good strategy.
the politics of death.
I think the worst case scenario for the US was ~2MM deaths (multiple waves with, no vaccine available), best case was 200k (with a vaccine).
The amazing sack of shit they are trying to sell is that had we done nothing deaths would have been 2 million and since we’re doing something 100 to 200 thousand deaths is a win and a good job...a tremendous job. (Worst in the world, but a tremendous job.)
Something tells me that official deaths will be between 50,000 and 95,000. The closer to 100,000 we get, look for a surge in “flu”, “pneumonia” or “automobile accident” deaths. That’s my hunch, but our national response has been such a clusterfuck I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s much more than 100k.
There goes the effort to avoid spooking everyone by taking decisive action in mid to late February.
I think we'll see 200,000 actual deaths and 200,000+ more unreported/covered up deaths in this country. People simply aren't getting tested, and doctors are being incentivized to not report deaths as Coronavirus to keep the mortality rate lower. Anecdotally, I had a family member pass away from Acute Repository Distress this past month, lungs filling up with fluid leading to death, but they were never tested for Coronavirus at any point even though that's likely the cause of their death.
Damn. I'm sorry to hear that.
Sorry to hear that. I have a family member whose elderly parent died recently from the virus.
I was able to listen to a conference call with one of the top experts yesterday. By that I mean, he's a name you'd know if you've been watching/reading a lot of the Covid news. Appears regularly on the major networks to give updates and analysis.
He said 100,000 is plausible but he'd be surprised if we get there. He reviewed the Univ. of Washington model that the government used to come up with the 100,000 - 200,000 projection. He feels its a fairly reasonable model, but goes a little heavy on some of the assumptions.
He didn't give a number of his own. His exact quote was "it's a reasonable model but I'll be surprised if we get there."
Other things he said: New York is getting a handle on things, he's very concerned about the wave that's about to hit Florida, and Texas is looking precarious.
His overall tone is neutral at best, maybe a bit on the pessimist side, so I think it's telling that someone with that stance is still willing to say the 100k is high for him.
Name drop the guy.
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