2018 Returns for Home-builders

rothbard814's picture
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Interesting post by Charlie, scrolled through his timeline a bit and he seems to have a lot of good content. RE people, do we think this is systemic a la 2008, or is it more so just a correction? Looking forward to some discussion, thanks!

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Oct 25, 2018

There was an old thread on this sometime last year if I am not mistaken. It had some great insights.

I do think we will experience a market correction, but nowhere near the financial meltdown of 2008. The banks aren't loaning money like they were before the last crash. From what I have heard and read before the recession the motto was "If you have a pulse we will approve you for a home loan" which is not happening today.

Consensus seems to be that the correction will come in 2019. I tend to agree with that.

I think part of the reason the home builders profits are down are from the shift from home ownership to wanting to live downtown, apartment living, mixed use etc.

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Oct 25, 2018

True, the key component of '08 was the easy lending, and it doesn't seem like the subprime nonsense will happen again for a long time (subprime auto may be a different story). In regards to your 2019 comment, are you referring to the housing market specifically, or the market as a whole?

Oct 25, 2018
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