I'm a REPE guy, so I don't know too much about the public markets. Any feedback?
Yes. I would bet on 2014 looking basically flat as we gotta digest that rapid multiple expansion (market up ~30% with earning up ~5%).
I think so. Sentiment is rapidly shifting against the growthiest sectors. Very different tone from a year or even six months ago. I think we'll see some multiple contraction and a shift back towards defensive/dividend paying names. By that point, economic fundamentals should be looking pretty shitty and my guess is we'll get a QE4. Put me down for markets down 5%-15% in 2014.
not sure, but almost all of the trailing stops I've put into my high flyers from last 1-2 years have been triggered and I'm plenty happy being more in cash with this vol and some insane valuations (i still dont see how you can value FB over $140bn).
full disclosure, i will start buying up some amzn if it get below 2 P/sales or if Google keeps sliding hard, may add to that position as well...but if these names have another 30% to slide, I'm fine avging in gradually and will continue to put on some more trailing stops on some of my positions that have gotten out of hand...
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You think it's time to start allocating more to emerging markets?
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I try to keep it simple with S&P Price to Sales.
I've also heard that only 15% of business cycles have lasted longer than this one.
Please don't quote Patrick Bateman.
can you pull that chart back to the 1960s? curious...
I used multpl.com (spelled incorrectly on purpose). If you look along the top, you will see a 'more' option. They have all kinds of cool breakdowns. Some of the charts go back pretty far back. The Shiller PE chart goes back to the 1880's.
Iwm has been sold in favor of EEM -- more of a longer term play with profit taking going on. The economic story hasn't changed and were still chugging upwards -- jobs report didn't suck. Europe gets the love , I like EM but wondering if this past months activity in them makes it a little pricy -- might see a pullback in EM over next few weeks but they're still cheaper and disconnected from developed markets over the past year
IBB as a falling knife contrarian fade play is starting to look interesting, ewj has corrected a good amount
I'd love to see a 10-15% drop over the next few months. Inflows to HFs look weak, the last couple of IPOs have been shit for most investors and all I'm waiting for is redemptions pushing HF to sell of positions.
Spoke to a couple of global mandate clients, they're seeing huge sell programs globally over the last couple of weeks.
My take, 10-15 drop until summer before the market picks up where it left September'13 and rallies. Expect to see 2014 flat/0. +/- 3%.
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