I wonder if it was this polarized when I was a kid (late 80's). Why can't we forget all the fucktards on both extremes (thinking Sharpton and Palin), find a person with a compromise and some more IQ points, and elect them? I guess we probably could have with Jon Huntsman.

 

Poor mediocrities... will never accomplish .0000001% of what Ronald Reagan did.

********************************* “The American father is never seen in London. He passes his life entirely in Wall Street and communicates with his family once a month by means of a telegram in cipher.” - Oscar Wilde
 

As opposed to hit jobs with heavily edited videos by non liberals. What did Breitbart say when ted kennedy passed a “villain,” “a big ass motherf@#$ER,” a “duplicitous bastard” and a “prick.”

Politics became messed up and more polarized in the 80s with the birth of movement conservatism. Reagan would loose a gop primary in 2012

Lack of integrity is heavily skewed towards fox news. Ps. Im not a liberal and dont support feds playing politics with marriage laws

 
konig:
Ronald Reagan. sigh. If only he was president!

Lol I never really understood lesbians, how do they figure out who's playing the mom/dad part? :P

Lol I never really understood the 50% of divorced straight couples, how do they figure out who's playing the mom/dad part? Is it their ex-partner or their current lover?

I'm sure the lesbians have it under control.

 
elephonky:
konig:
Ronald Reagan. sigh. If only he was president!

Lol I never really understood lesbians, how do they figure out who's playing the mom/dad part? :P

Lol I never really understood the 50% of divorced straight couples, how do they figure out who's playing the mom/dad part? Is it their ex-partner or their current lover?

I'm sure the lesbians have it under control.

Ex Partner.

 
Abdel:
Typical liberal behavior.

Liberals lack anything remotely associated with cooth, class or moral integrity. Sad creatures at best.

Dude, I could find hundreds of posts by you on this board that lack "cooth". Get off your fucking high horse.

(disclaimer: I'm not a liberal)

 
elephonky:
Abdel:
Typical liberal behavior.

Liberals lack anything remotely associated with cooth, class or moral integrity. Sad creatures at best.

Dude, I could find hundreds of posts by you on this board that lack "cooth". Get off your fucking high horse.

(disclaimer: I'm not a liberal)

THE difference is, I'm only here to have fun and to troll a little.

 

The 1980s were the height of US power. It was truly the era when the US stood for freedom, capitalism, and democracy.

That said, Reagan had a lot of help from deregulation under Carter. He also had a lot of help from Carter's postimperialist agenda abroad.

American politics goes through cycles. The fact is that right now, a bigger government would be helpful- just as it was in the 1930s.

 

LOL Abdel, the facepalm must be for the deflation the US is experiencing, right?

Oil prices -> $110 down to $78 in three months.

Natural gas -> $2.50/therm down from $11 four years ago.

Copper prices -> $3.40/lb down from $4 three months ago.

You can go on down the list of commodities prices. They are all dropping. Sorry, but this time around, Keynesianism- specifically on the monetary front- is the answer. We need to print USD, buy back our debt, and on top of that, spend some of the money on infrastructure that we will need to spend anyways.

The US has a $50 Billion legal obligation for the storage and processing of spent nuclear fuel. Let's get that taken care of while labor is cheap and resources are cheap.

 
IlliniProgrammer:
The 1980s were the height of US power. It was truly the era when the US stood for freedom, capitalism, and democracy.

That said, Reagan had a lot of help from deregulation under Carter. He also had a lot of help from Carter's postimperialist agenda abroad.

American politics goes through cycles. The fact is that right now, a bigger government would be helpful- just as it was in the 1930s.

It was all short term, backing saddam hussien ended up with an ally Kuwait getting invaded and then a 2nd gulf war in 2003

Helping Tim Osman and other groups in Afghanistan as well spending millions on empowering Religious Extremist's literature and scholars also ended up costing the US more over the next 2 decades. Trying to kill Gaddafi didnt help either, he retaliated with Lockerbie and Disco bombings

trickledown economics didnt work as had been planned. David Stockman who has brilliant analysis on economic issues and a former director of OFB says the economic policies did not work as planned

 

Its utterly disrespectful with those k**ts did. Period. But like many young capitalist, I possessed a blind love for Regan… The reason its funny is because a lot of his actions clearly went against what many conservative/libertarians believe today.

And also, I would say the height of American power was the 90's, when we saw as close as bi-partinship in congress as we'll ever see in awhile.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't everyone afraid of being bombed in the 80's? Didn’t we have a pretty big stock crash in the 80's? Wasn't this the period with one of the largest income disparity?

"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies."
 
Best Response
BillyRay05:
Its utterly disrespectful with those k**ts did. Period. But like many young capitalist, I possessed a blind love for Regan… The reason its funny is because a lot of his actions clearly went against what many conservative/libertarians believe today.
Reagan did a lot of terrible things, too. We supported Garcia and Montt in Guatemala in the 1980s; Reagan knew about their death squads and took steps to hide them from the US public. He supported the contras in Nicaragua who were basically doing the same thing, ultimately selling weapons to Iran to finance the support.

We helped prop up various dictatorships in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina while they were running roughshod over human rights in the name of stopping more moderate versions of socialism. Allende was to the right of the current Argentine government and well to the right of Chavez, but the US engineered a coup to overthrow him with Pinochet under Nixon. Reagan restored much of the aid we cut off under Carter even while Pinochet continued to jail and sometimes kill political dissidents.

And also, I would say the height of American power was the 90's, when we saw as close as bi-partinship

in congress as we'll ever see in awhile.
We had two government shutdowns inthe '90s.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't everyone afraid of being bombed in the 80's? Didn’t we have a pretty big stock crash in the 80's? Wasn't this the period with one of the largest income disparity?
The 80s were the start of the growing income disparity in the US, and everyone was very worried about it. But we had a middle class back then and we had American manufacturing back then- even though we were getting thumped by the Japanese.
 

Psychologically, deflation doesn't work well. People would rather have more money and have things cost more than have less money and things be cheaper.

Frankly, I would rather have high prices, high pay, and have 100 potential Fukushimas in the US have their waste reprocessed. Not having a bunch of ticking time bombs sitting around is the responsible thing to do. I guess we could wait for an earthquake to hit the Pacific West Coast and in the laissez-faire libertarian model, after the cesium and strontium settles, the nonexistent survivors could sue the nonexistent Pacific Gas and Electric company in a nonexistent federal court and collect a nonexistent settlement.

Or we could just deal with the problem.

 

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IlliniProgrammer:
Three years of Keynesianism later, oil prices are down 40%

Three years of Keynesianism later? You mean +40 years (1971).

In 1972, barrel of crude oil was $2.24 In 2012, it's around $80 and will be back above $100 eventually.

So that's a nominal price increase of over 3,500%.

Now let's look at prices measured in real money, i.e. gold

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Oh no, crude oil prices have been falling in terms of real money/gold! DEFLATION ALERT haha

o and this is the world's oil production:

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IlliniProgrammer:
unemployment has dropped from 10% to 8%
.

Oh sure, those recent +1.2 million people who are left out of the work force because their benefits expired are not real. The real rate is around 15% if not higher. Hey, the economy is doing great, only 8% unemployment. You're an engineer working part time at mcdonalds, it doesn't matter, the unemployment is at 8%!!!!!

IlliniProgrammer:
Guess Obamanomics beats European-style austerity.

yea, the famous European-style austerity. Let's look at some charts here

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Also: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-final-consumption-exp…

For the lazy monkeys: Government final consumption expenditure In Billions of US dollars

France Gov. spending in 2004: 418.5 France Gov. spending in 2011: 564.4

Greece Gov. spending in 2004: 48.2 Greece Gov. spending in 2011: 53.0

Italy Gov. spending in 2004: 315.2 Italy Gov. spending in 2011: 406.1

Same goes for Spain and Portugal. I guess they don't have the same definition of austerity.

Viva Keynes!

 
In 1972, barrel of crude oil was $2.24 In 2012, it's around $80 and will be back above $100 eventually.
And yet energy intensity reductions have easily covered the difference over that time. The coolest thing is that the US consumes less energy per capita than it did in 1970, but our GDP per capita has grown much faster.
Oh sure, those recent +1.2 million people who are left out of the work force because their benefits expired are not real. The real rate is around 15% if not higher. Hey, the economy is doing great, only 8% unemployment. You're an engineer working part time at mcdonalds, it doesn't matter, the unemployment is at 8%!!!!!
The real rate was 22% back in 2008/2009, so we've come down 7% according to even Shadowstats. Thank you, Obama.

Indeed, even small decreases in spending are causing huge damage to the European economies. Rioting in Spain. The rise of Neo-nazism in Greece. Imagine what would happen in the US had the austerity crowd won in the budget fight last August...

Meanwhile, Rand Paul is holding federal disaster aid hostage over the personhood of a fetus. And we can't fund a solution to the US's nuclear waste problem due to a combination of the left-wing environuts (ironic, I know) and libertarians (who believe that after the entire countryside lays covered in a 2mm dusting of cesium, the solution can be found in a courtroom). Hooray!

 
IlliniProgrammer:
The coolest thing is that the US consumes less energy per capita than it did in 1970

Sounds to me that it is something someone would do if he was poorer.

IlliniProgrammer:
but our GDP per capita has grown much faster.

You mean that GDP composed of 70% consumption based on borrowed money to consume foreign products? Or maybe the real GDP which substracts the inflation that is heavily understated?

IlliniProgrammer:
The real rate was 22% back in 2008/2009, so we've come down 7% according to even Shadowstats. Thank you, Obama.

When Obama started the job, the debt was $10T. It is now $16T. So, of course if you blow $6T, you can create some jobs. Problem is, most of the jobs created are phony service sector jobs. They will fade away soon enough.

IlliniProgrammer:
Indeed, even small decreases in spending are causing huge damage to the European economies.

Hmm, what? I just showed you that compared to 2004, these contries INCREASED spending.

 
Abdel:
Sounds to me that it is something someone would do if he was poorer.
If I switch from a cup of black Folgers at home to Starbucks Cappucinos, I am probably not consuming less caffeine because I got poorer.
You mean that GDP composed of 70% consumption based on borrowed money to consume foreign products? Or maybe the real GDP which substracts the inflation that is heavily understated?
The US manufactures more today than it did in 1970. And increased affluence doesn't mean we want more toasters, cars, lightbulbs, and beer cans (manufacturing). It means we want more iphone apps (consumer services), we need better apartment rentals with better views (consumer services), it means we want to eat out more (consumer services). The fact that the US consumer has changed how he spends his money does not mean that the economy is broken. It means the US consumer is wealthier.

Want to look at affluence? Take a look at the consumer savings rate. 2006 was a bad year, but we've recovered to 1990s levels of savings since. And net US debt- between consumers, corporations, and the feds, actually declined between 2008 and 2012 despite one of the lowest inflation environments in decades. These are all signs of underlying health in the economy that are fairly contraindicative of your picture of doom and gloom.

The US CPI is ultimately based on the consumer market basket. You can get the details of the exact makeup here:

http://www.bls.gov/CPI/cpid1205.pdf?page=6

When Obama started the job, the debt was $10T. It is now $16T. So, of course if you blow $6T, you can create some jobs. Problem is, most of the jobs created are phony service sector jobs. They will fade away soon enough.
Yet at the same time, the price of oil is down 40%, the USDX is at all time highs, and the dollar has lost a tiny 4.5% of its purchasing power over four years:

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/consumer_price_index/historicalc…

Meanwhile, cash is gushing out of Europe and Asia right now and into US Dollars. Why not sell when demand is high, buyers are desperate, and the price is extravagant?

IlliniProgrammer:
Hmm, what? I just showed you that compared to 2004, these contries INCREASED spending.
Yes. They increased it from 2004-2008, then they reduced it froom 2009-2012. You didn't have neo-nazis and communists show up until after they started decreasing it.

Want political stability? Reduce the debt through inflation rather than austerity. The biggest savers are abroad anyways, right? Let's let THEM help pay for our debt, rather than make the biggest sacrifices at home.

Regardless, most of us would rather live in Zimbabwe than live in the US in 100 years if we don't spend money and solve the nuclear waste situation (there is an easy $50 Billion technical fix). Unfortunately, the left wing environuts oppose it because it helps the nuclear industry (ironic, right?), and the libertarians oppose it because it involves the government spending money. Unfortunately, solutions will not be found from tort action when 2/3 of the countryside across the US turns brown from radiation poisoning.

 

There are too many flaws in what you wrote and little time nor energy for me to address each one of them.

In sum what your saying is:

''The drug addict is feeling good right now (thanks to the $6T injected) and that's all what matters . The addict should use this time to clean up his room, do some grocery shopping and eat something.''

Problem is, when the high goes away, your economy is now in deeper doodoo.

And this is coming soon.

 
''The drug addict is feeling good right now (thanks to the $6T injected) and that's all what matters . The addict should use this time to clean up his room, do some grocery shopping and eat something.''
No, I am saying that the drug addict's drug levels have decreased markedly over the past few years. Evidence of the damage being done by the drug has come down markedly as his 2002-2008 OD on consumer credit has worn off.

Now the patient is dehydrated and we are trying to get some water into his system in addition to some minor methodone injections ($500 tax rebates and UI extensions). Unfortunately, a bunch of Luddites and Amish people are showing up and shouting

"NO! YOU CAN'T DO THAT. DON'T GIVE HIM WATER!!! THAT'S MEDICINE!!! HE'S A DRUG ADDICT!!! YOU'LL KILL HIM!!!"

"But doctor! the body heals itself. Don't give it anything. The deep breathing and pale clammy skin is the body coping with the water shortage."

Meanwhile the doctor is telling the family:

"When the patient first came in, you screamed and tried to kill me when I gave him a shot of methodone. You said I was furthering his addiction when I was really weaning him off of the drug. He's BETTER now because I gave him the methodone. Now he needs water. Will you let me give it to him?"

"THAT NEVER HAPPENED! THE PATIENT WAS FINE WHEN WE BROUGHT HIM INTO YOUR HOSPITAL WHILE HE WAS HAVING SEIZURES. YOU'RE TRYING TO KILL THE PATIENT BY GIVING HIM A DRINK! HE COULD CHOKE!"

"Psst. If he gets worse, we might be able to convince him to switch doctors. I know a good chiropractor, and he doesn't use modern medicine. The clammy skin is obviously a back problem- right?"

"Psst. Yeah. That's an interesting thought."

Finally the patient wakes up.

"I kinda like this doctor. And I think I would like a glass of water now."

"NOOOO!!!!! YOU'RE GOING TO KILL YOURSELF!! THAT'S MEDICINE!! YOU COULD DROWN ON THAT CUP OF WATER!!! THIS GUY FROM ZIMBABWE DROWNED IN WATER WHEN HIS DOCTOR MURDERED HIM IN A BATHTUB!!! AND A GUY FROM ARGENTINA DROWNED IN A LAKE, TOO!"

"But I'm thirsty. I've drunk water for the past 77 years. This is nothing new."

"Guys, he's dehydrated. He needs water. It will help dilute the remaining drugs in his system."

"Take a look at the patients next door. Their doctors were convinced by people like you that the patients had too much water. They gave the patients salt instead. Those patients are even sicker. Two have gone crazy and one thinks he's a neo nazi."

"BUT BUT BUT THOSE DOCTORS WENT TO THE SAME COLLEGE AS YOU. AND YOUR FRIEND'S ROOMMATE GOT THEM HOOKED ON DRUGS."

"Doesn't change the fact that all of these patients need water right now."

I'm sorry Abdel. I'm with you guys in a constrained resource market, but right now, we need to print and maybe even spend money. The commonsense place to start is on things that will protect the environment without making things more complicated for the private sector. Nuclear waste and tearing down worthless housing- and converting it back to farms- is probably a good place to start.

Most of the issues you have cited are red herrings. Meanwhile, the big economic indicators- the flow of money into the USD, oil prices, commodity prices, the CPI, the USDX, are all saying print. So let's print. If you're worried, we can buy real assets with the money and then sell them at a (by definition) higher price- and retire currency- if inflation ever runs rampant. Or we can take care of spending that we will almost surely have to do later anyways- likely at a higher price.

 

wait what?

'' I am saying that the drug addict's drug levels have decreased '' ??????

The stimulus IS the drug.

Operation Twist 1 and 2? QE 1,2 and soon 3?

lol the level of drug(stimulus) in the system have never been this high.

 
The stimulus IS the drug.

Operation Twist 1 and 2? QE 1,2 and soon 3?

lol the level of drug(stimulus) in the system have never been this high.

The drug is consumers living beyond their means by means of debt. The methodone is government transfers.

The monetary action is merely water. And the deflation is a symptom of dehydration. I'm saying the fed needs to print money and buy real assets that it can sell later if inflation starts to become a problem. It's a lot better than printing money to finance the Vietnam War like we did in the '60s.

 
IlliniProgrammer:
The stimulus IS the drug.

Operation Twist 1 and 2? QE 1,2 and soon 3?

lol the level of drug(stimulus) in the system have never been this high.

The drug is consumers living beyond their means by means of debt. The methodone is government transfers.

The monetary action is merely water. And the deflation is a symptom of dehydration.

Even if we go by your logic:

If consumers spending too much = drug

and

Gov stimulus goal is to = get consumers to spend

Therefore

Gov stimulus = drug

lol

 
Abdel:

Gov stimulus goal is to = get consumers to spend

No. Gov't/Fed goal is to get the economy running.

And consumer debt was the original drug. The stimulus was merely methodone. In that second situation, no money was borrowed by consumers at 18%, (it was borrowed at 3% for 30 years by the feds) and it was a temporary one-time payment.

The drugs forced water out of the cells of the body. The methodone did the same to a very small extent and stopped the seizures. Now the impacts of the original drug are leaving the body, and the cells are absorbing water from the bloodstream, and the patient is experiencing dehydration. He needs the cup of water that the chiropractors, root doctors, and naturalist dieticians are all claiming is poisonous medicine from a dangerous doctor. It's just water; we've drunk it for 77 years.

Paying for stuff now that we are guaranteed to need to pay for in the next 100 years also isn't drugs. It's commonsense. Pay for stuff while it's still cheap. Build Yucca Mountain while our bulldozers are taking $3 diesel rather than $4. Print money to pay for it. And paying for that stuff now sure beats spending printed money on a war in Vietnam.

When you are having back problems and your doctor gives you aspirin for it, you go see a chiropractor. When you are having trouble losing weight, you go see a dietician. When you have been binging on drugs and are having seizures, going to the chiropractor or the dietician will get you killed. You go to the doctor. Particularly one that has studied withdrawal from this particular drug.

The patient will have back problems in the future. He will need a healthy diet. And he's only gone from obese to overweight. Yes, water will temporarily add a few pounds. Let's get the patient out of the hospital first so he can exercise before we worry that 8 oz of water means adding half a pound.

PS: Chiropractors look like kooks when they claim that doctors are lying scumbags and medicine kills people. They don't need to say that to get us to come visit them first when we have joint problems.

 

As for deflation, keep in mind that real economic growth bring prices down, i.e. US industrial revolution = biggest wealth creation in human history and prices went down for a century.

 

No no and no.

If keynesians understood economics, they would be able to see the crisises coming. They don't, which shows that they are clueless on how an economy works.

Listen to this (4min)

 
Abdel:
No no and no.

If keynesians understood economics, they would be able to see the crisises coming. They don't, which shows that they are clueless on how an economy works.

If the Austrians were right, they would have kept unemployment from ballooning to 35% during the Great Depression while the GDP contracted 25%.

We had the exact same heart attack as we did in 1929, but the doctor was there this time, and he prevented the patient's heart from stopping. So instead of a 30% unemployment jump, we saw a 5% jump (12-15% if you believe the most conspiratorially pessimistic numbers possible).

So yes, and yes. And how come Peter Schiff didn't see the crash coming in Europe? In China? In gold prices? How is that dollar short trade working out for him? Schiff has been as clueless post-crash as the Keynesians were pre-crash. Again, Austrian trainer/dietitian called the heart attack while Keynesian missed it; Keynesian stabilizes the patient while Austrian panics and claims the Keynesian is going to kill the already-dead patient as patient comes back to life, despite all of his doomsaying.

I'm really glad you brought Schiff into this. He kinda illustrates my point.

Austrians have a role in healthy economies as well as resource constrained ones. Keynesians do well in dollar and demand constrained economies.

Give a few more years (EG in time for the 2014 mid-terms or the 2016 presidential election), and the Austrian doctor will have much more of a role. And irony of ironies, these Keynesians have been extremely conservative. Trying to apply the bare minimum voltage on the defibrillator. Skirting the bare minimum on the aspirin dose and vitamin E supplements, assiduously heeding the Austrian's fears about liver damage and slower blood clotting. But reduced blood clotting is a risk you have to take when the patient's heart risks stopping again, and you accept the side-effects because they beat the risk of going without the medicine.

Inflation- or reduced deflation- is a side-effect of Keynesian policy.

The Keynesians are saying we need angioplasty- printing currency and spending money. The Austrians, as usual, are in a panic- saying that that tube will somehow increase the patient's volume and he'll have more fat to lose. I say let's do the angioplasty, but only where it's absoluely necessary and only where we can easily get the tube out if we start to notice damage. So we can print money, buy or build real assets that we can SELL later if/when inflation picks up. Since the economy runs off of fairly conservative forces, the impact of selling the assets into an inflationary market should undo much of the damage done by buying the assets in a deflationary market.

 

First of all, you're avoiding to acknowledge that keynesians are clueless about the economy (they are unable to predict what will happen).

IlliniProgrammer:
If the Austrians were right, they would have kept unemployment from ballooning to 35% during the Great Depression while the GDP contracted 25%.

Three things:

1) What do you mean by ''if the Austrians were right'' ? They were/are right times and times again lol.

2) If we used today the same methodology used back then to measure unemployment, the current unemployment in the US would be over 20%

3) On the causes of the great depression, read this: http://www.amazon.com/Americas-Great-Depression-Murray-Rothbard/dp/0945…

Also, keep in mind that the 1920 depression (cased by the fed) which saw a bigger economic and stock market contraction than in the great depression, was over withing a year. You know what the FED and gov action was? Nothing. =)

IlliniProgrammer:
We had the exact same heart attack as we did in 1929, but the doctor was there this time, and he prevented the patients heart from stopping. So instead of a 30% unemployment jump, we saw a 5% jump (15% if you believe the most conspiratorially pessimistic numbers possible).

Thing is, it's the governement/FED who caused the crisis. In sum, the government creates a problem then try to solve it by creating other problems (bigger ones!).

IlliniProgrammer:
So yes, and yes. And how come Peter Schiff didn't see the crash coming in Europe?
He did.
IlliniProgrammer:
In China?
Last time I checked, China is doing alot better than most of the world. Not sure you can call that a crash.
IlliniProgrammer:
In gold prices?
what? lol, he's been buying gold since it was around $200/oz. This is only a market correction, which is normal for a bull market. He understands the fundamentals, for that reason he bought gold back then. Mike Norman, who is a keynesian like you, sold his gold at $400 because he thought that it was overvalued, which shows he is clueless.
IlliniProgrammer:
How is that dollar short trade working out for him?

Well the USD have been falling VS almost every currency/commodity on the planet = huge loss in purchasing power.

IlliniProgrammer:
Schiff has been as clueless post-crash as the Keynesians were pre-crash.

Schiff looks at the fundamentals, position himself then waits to collect. He's not worried with the temporary head fakes of the market which is largely filled with clueless keynesians who act on data and not on understanding how an economy works. Also, it is hard to predict short term movements because politicians can always change the rules (e.g. europe, first no bail out, then everyone gets one etc.) which allow them to gain some extra time.

IlliniProgrammer:
Again, Austrian trainer/dietitian called the heart attack while Keynesian missed it; Keynesian stabilizes the patient while Austrian panics and claims the Keynesian is going to kill the already-dead patient as patient comes back to life, despite all of his doomsaying.

No, the Austrian called every single crisis of each of his patient years in advance while the Keynesian was clueless. Once the crisis hit, the austrian tells his drug'd up patient that he needs to go through withdrawl if he wants to be healthy again. It is unpleasant, but it is necessary. The keynesian say, no no, here's another dose. lol

IlliniProgrammer:
Austrians have a role in healthy economies as well as resource constrained ones. Keynesians do well in dollar and demand constrained economies.

So, you put the faith of the economy on people who proved time and time again they were clueless on how an economy works.

It is as if I had 2 employees, one predicts every market crisis in details and in advance while the other one is clueless. Promotion time comes and I promote the clueless employee and put him in charge. Genius. lol

 
2) If we used today the same methodology used back then to measure unemployment, the current unemployment in the US would be over 20%
More like 15% since partial employment still counted as employment back then. More importantly, we started from a 6% baseline in this recession, so you're looking at a 14% increase even using your extremely pessimistic number. This is less than HALF the damage wrought by 1929 when the conservative economists were in charge.
3) On the causes of the great depression, read this: http://www.Amazon.com/Americas-Great-Depression-Murray-Rothbard/dp/09454...
The cause was simple. The fed got caught with its pants down having more dollars outstanding than gold to back it. So for four years, we tried to take dollars out of the market to shore up confidence in the dollar. Instead, the right move was to get off the gold standard.
Also, keep in mind that the 1920 depression (cased by the fed) which saw a bigger economic and stock market contraction than in the great depression, was over withing a year. You know what the FED and gov action was? Nothing. =)
Recessions after world wars are actually fairly typical. Same with inflation after they lift price controls. Millions of people died, large amounts of capital were destroyed; folks were too busy being happy that war was over to worry about a recession then.
It is as if I have 2 employees, one predicts every market crisis in details and in advance while the other one is clueless. Promotion time comes and I promote the clueless employee and put him in charge. Genius. lol
You left out the second part of the story. After the crisis, that employee is clueless while the formerly clueless employee fixes the recession.
No, the Austrian called every single crisis of each of his patient years in advance while the Keynesian was clueless. Once the crisis hit, the austrian tells his drug'd up patient that he needs to go through withdrawl if he wants to be healthy again. It is unpleasant, but it is necessary. The keynesian say, no no, here's another dose. lol
And then when the patient ignores the Austrian and inevitably winds up in trouble again, the Keynesian actually knows how to bring the patient back to health while the Austrian folds his hands and says "I told you so."

Given that we are the patient and we are unconscious on the floor, which doctor do you want working on you?

Schiff looks at the fundamentals, position himself then wait to collect. He's not worried with the temporary head fakes of the market which is largely filled with clueless keynesians who act on data and not on understanding how an economy works. Also, it is hard to predict short term movements because politicians can always change the rules (e.g. europe, first no bail out, then everyone gets one etc.) which allow them to gain some extra time.
Schiff has lost so much money over the past four years that he has lost all credibility. The fact that he bets on the US failing and then LOSES is even more telling. Perfect example of the doctor who folds his arms and says "Yeah, he's going to die. Let's walk away." Is that who you want trying to save you?
what? lol, he's been buying gold since it was around $200/oz. This is only a market correction, which is normal for a bull market. He understands the fundamentals, for that reason he bought gold back then. Mike Norman, who is a keynesian like you, sold his gold at $400 because he thought that it was overvalued, which shows he is clueless.
His biggest pronouncements came out at $1800. Woops.

Gold is not done with its run, but that doesn't mean Schiff isn't an idiot. Asia and Europe are going to self--destruct and the US is going to be left with the natural resources.

Well the USD have been falling VS almost every currency/commodity on the planet = huge loss in purchasing power.
Actually the USDX has been incredibly strong:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EUSDOLLAR+Interactive#symbol=^usdollar;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

And the CPI is also pretty embarassing. 1.3% inflation average over the past four years. Lowest four year inflation rate EVER.

Thing is, it's the governement/FED who caused the crisis. In sum, the government creates a problem then try to solve it by creating other problems (bigger ones!).
Which is why we need to focus on inflating away our debt rather than paying it all back by taking money out of the economy. We are making the same mistakes as 1929.
 

Few things:

  • What does conservative economist even means? It's either you understand economics (austrian) or you don't (keynesian)

  • Leaving the gold standard was the right thing to do? Let me get this straight, the governement cheats and instead of recognizing its mistake, he cheats again by removing the only thing that bounds him.

  • The point I'm making about the 1920 depression is that the gov and the FED did not intervene. They let the market clear and it did. Today, we're +5 years in the crisis and still getting worse. Similar to the great depression which ended only at the end of WW2 when the gov slashed spending massively.

As for the rest, it was already adressed in my previous posts.

 
Abdel:
Few things:
  • What does conservative economist even means? It's either you understand economics (austrian) or you don't (keynesian)
Lol, it's either you understand how to save the patient or you don't. Keynesians understand how to save the patient.
- Leaving the gold standard was the right thing to do? Let me get this straight, the governement cheats and instead of recognizing its mistake, he cheats again by removing the only thing that bounds him.
CC: Interstate system. CC: modern skyscraper CC: modern air travel CC: biggest 35 years of economic growth in US history.
- The point I'm making about the 1920 depression is that the gov and the FED did not intervene. They let the market clear and it did. Today, we're +5 years in the crisis and still getting worse. Similar to the great depression which ended only at the end of WW2 when the gov slashed spending massively.
Actually there was a pretty big recession at the end of the WWII with a 12% drop in GDP. The first step to understanding economics is at least understanding economic history, Abdel. There is almost always a recession at the end of a major war.
 

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