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Assuming all out war is as big of a blunder as it is cynical. There are still opportunities for de-escalation.
There are, but do you really think His Orangeness would accept them even if they were offered to him on a silver platter? His style is that whenever someone hits him, he hits back harder. The most likely scenario is that this turns into a giant mess. This is a bigger blunder than his Syria pull out.
I don't think this necessarily means all out war, but thinks are getting dicey. Iran straight up said that any country that the US uses to stage an attack (be it missiles or troops) will be attacked too. I think our allies in the Middle East are going to try to avoid all out conflict if they can. It will be interesting to see what transpires in the next few days, but I would think the US would try to avoid another war in the Middle East. Edit: If we do go to war with Iran than they are fucked. We could easily wipe out their their air force immediately and just dominate after that.
Don't worry, Trump's got 52 targets he can hit, including historical and cultural sites.
yay war crimes
I think Pakistan May intervene in this as they share a border with Iran and enjoy good Relations with saudis. Pakistan will not want a war in that region
Idk man that big cult over there is hell bent on spreading Sharia Law sometimes
Lmao definitely don't trust Pakistan
There's still a lot we don't know.
The Al Asad is an Iraqi military base that houses some U.S. personnel. It is a massive complex the size of Boulder, Colorado.
The pics that the Iranian government tweeted are pics from prior strikes.
We still don't have confirmation on whether there were any U.S. casualties.
It is imperative to wait for all the facts before jumping to conclusions.
News Flash: The "war with Iran" began in November 1979.
The fact that only one side (Iran) has been consistently prosecuting that war in the intervening forty years does not mean that the hostilities have not been ongoing.
It might--as the old song says--take two to tango, but it only takes one to wage a war.
The US had a problem in Afghanistan: the country is mostly mountains, full of caves, so the Talibans simply withdrew for a few years, organized a guerrilla warfare (terrorism, lmao) and gradually took back the country.
Iran is the same, just worse. The country is a natural fortress, surrounded by mountains with the big cities in the middle. Nobody dared going in in the 90s simply because they saw what happened during the Iraq-Iran war in the 80: human wave tactics. There's virtually zero chance of long term success over there, just a short term capture of Teheran and a decade of chaos.
Trump would be an idiot to go in and it'd be equally idiotic to hit cultural targets. I doubt he'll do it, but we'll see.
I don't disagree with this summary but it begs the question, then what? Then what are we willing to do about Iran? How much rope do we give them? Are they allowed to continue their proxy control of terrorism with no retrubtuion just because of the terrain? Do we starve them (moreso than now) with sanctions? Do sanctions really work?
These are all important questions. Whatever we do, let's just all hope and pray it's well thought out and includes several chess moves ahead (like 15 at least) rather than aggressively putting them in check only to watch them castle us.
Sanctions do a massive damage to the Iranian economy, which otherwise would be one of the wealthiest in the region as historically it has always been. Large consumer population, natural resources, trade routes, tourism.
Terrorism: most Islamic terrorism worldwide is from the Salafist branch of Sunni Islam, you are hitting the wrong country.
I don't really have a solution. Any attack strengthens Iranian nationalism. Shia Islam itself has martyrdom as core concept. There's virtually zero chance to find a reliable counterpart in Iran in the short term.
In the long term? Iran's best shot is to simply resist, build a nuclear arsenal until it can't be bullied around anymore. Let's hope that by then they will have someone we can talk to.
We are not going to war with Iran. The last thing Iran wants is an actual war with the US. The fact that they are claiming 80 casualties from their retaliation bombing (when the US is reporting 0) and stopping short of promising actual military action shows they are trying to make it look like they've retaliated proportionally while not actually having the idiocy to escalate things further. You can probably expect increased militia/terrorist action against US allies, but for now I think deterrence has been re-implemented.
For reference: https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-supreme-leader-issues-more-threats-a…
Come across any baddies in your foreign policy research? ;) Jk, this is a good hot take.
This is my thoughts. Such a soft response with no US casualties shows they not really bout that life. Only issue now is Trump already indicated a response if Iran hits any "US assets". He drew a redline, and Iran immediately crossed it.
I agree, this will be a proxy war if any. Cybercrime will come about and Iran will throw wrenches into the gears of US companies (like they've done before). Maybe even hold data hostage. We'll see more autonomous drones in Saudi to fuck with oil. More Hezbollah funding to attack Israel from Lebanon/ Gaza strip. Maybe send some to Syria to mess with Turkey and align themselves with the Kurds since America left them to die.
If I were Iran, I would try to get tight with China and screw around in LatAm and other major suppliers to the US infrastructure.
But an all out war? No way. Nuclear war? I hope not, but I see that as more of a possibility than troops fighting on the ground.
But what do I know? Time will tell
Given what happened last night, thankfully does not look like Iran is interested in an all out war, but we can kiss Iraq goodbye. Our foreign policy with Iran and the ME has reached new levels of incoherency.
Trump is slurring his words ("accompliment," "tolerided") throughout this address and seems both completely out of it and somehow out of breath. The deterioration of his mental state is truly the most frightening thing of his presidency. He sounded intelligent in his interviews a decade ago.
We need an upper age limit for presidents
And yet here we are with Trump, Bernie, and Biden.
Warren's young at only 70
Not to mention all of the sniffing, which some have attributed to medication. The heavy use of the podium for support. The occasional Dyskinesia (involuntary movements) ...at one point he jerks at the waist and shoulder.
Something is up with his health.
Nobel Peace Prize for Mr Trump for his de-escalating statement
Guys could a draft be implemented? Not sure I'm ready to die yet.
In my opinion we should build better relations with Iran rather than the dirty Saudis. Considering no Iranian even flew a plane into an American building or tried to blow up American civilians I’d say they are the lesser evil. The Saudis on the other hand are a bad foreign policy pursuit. They have ruined most of the Middle East with their extremist ideology and are the biggest threat to democracy and American way of life. Iran’s civilian population that is pro American is by far much larger than the Saudi population’s. Sure the government is anti American but can you really blame them since the US allowed Saddam back in the day to use chemical weapons. My opinion is warmer relations will dial down the hostilities. And let’s not forget who was largely responsible for destroying isis which was mainly a Saudi cleric inspired terror group.
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