cigs are about to rebound. the anti health wave is set to gain popularity in response to the way that the idea of fitness is trendy today. mainstream media will become tired of their current portrayal of a healthy lifestyle revolving around fitness and begin to romanticize death once we see a downtrend in the markets. society will become more carefree and more people will start smoking cigs since other forms of obtaining nicotine such as juul are not seen to be edgy enough. the primary stock I am long is Reynolds American Inc (RAI). stock is up 19.8% in the past year. this is all speculation of course, but I have done the research to support my hypothesis. In 1960, 58% of all men and 36% of all women in the nation smoked. that balances out to 47%. In contrast, 17% of americans smoke today. it is likely that tobacco consumption will return back to rates of 1960 as this is when it was known by all that cigarettes were linked to cancer. if electronic cig methods were to even capture half of the new business that will be created, that still leaves 32% of america smoking cigs post lifestyle shift. one of the largest tobacco corporations in 1960 was RJ Reynolds. their name today: Reynolds American Incorporated i.e., (RAI). feel free to pm if you have specific questions or would like to analyze my dcf model.
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