Long/short strategies - Are you scared or excited about 2021?

Public markets at all-time highs. Retails going crazy. Staggering returns for investors in game-changing ideas or memes like ARK, bitcoin, TSLA, etc.

Bear thesis: COVID resurgence might happen. US kind of in a political turmoil, and lots of stimulus, lots of people unemployed.

Bull thesis: Recovery will take place. Fed stimulus. ???

Are you excited? Scared?

Comments (16)

 
Jan 12, 2021 - 6:34pm

Bear thesis: Big Tech is already pushing to influence Biden's administration ahead of pushback against said companies from regulators and progressive groups. Should regulators bring the hammer down I expect a social media bloodbath 

Bull thesis: The FED will literally bail out anyone

 
Jan 12, 2021 - 7:32pm

Bull Thesis: Fed keeps pumping apparently endless money into the system. Valuations don't matter because fomo and sentiment. 

Bear Thesis: Unemployment benefits, eviction ban expire. More businesses get shaken out and end up bankrupt. Tax cut reversion during the democratic presidency? 

 
Most Helpful
Jan 13, 2021 - 5:02pm

Bull thesis: papi powell, Robin hood still exists, rates aren't going anywhere for another while longer, employment is only going to get better from here

Bear thesis: Wild valuations, eventually raising rates, COVID 2.0, corporate taxes, Care Act ends, robinhooders get jobs and can't buy calls all day  

Array
  • 2
 
Jan 13, 2021 - 5:06pm

seems like the fed has made this no longer a free market. worried about implications

path less traveled

  • 1
 
Funniest
Jan 17, 2021 - 8:00pm

Bull Case: the world wakes up and realizes that the party that stands for freedom of speech, law and order, and capitalism actually won the rigged election.  The orange man is reinstated. Markets surge on capitalism, de-regulation, and relative world peace. 
 

bear case: we are living in it! The man with the melting brain whose most notable legislature resulted in the imprisonment of hundreds of thousands of minorities and the VP whose grandfather was a slave trader, who made her career by sleeping to the top of the SF political scene, all while locking up minorities for marijuana charges and not going after the corrupt SF political scene are inaugurated, after a clearly rigged election.  The media/politicians/tech now hide/push back on any racial discord in the US.  Racism is cured for the next 4 years until this party needs to bring it back so they can scare minorities to vote for them. After 4 years of hearing every day how trump is a Russian spy and Russians rigged the election for him, even bringing up the fact that some actual fishy things happened this election makes people condemnable.   After 4 years of violent protests and 9 months of democratic leaders/media/tech actively encouraging the looting of businesses and burning of cities.... any political violence is now seen as terrorism.  The woke strategists that forecast doom and gloom for the markets under Trump also forecast great things for markets under melty brain... all of which turns out to be wrong!  The effects of stimulus are already priced in, and the idea that the party of censorship/socialism would not enact business crippling measures until the economy has recovered is going out the window before the new regime is even officially in! 15$ minimum wage after democratic governors forced businesses closed for the last year... talk about kneeling on the neck!  Then the corporate tax hikes in 2H 2021, followed by individual tax hikes in 2022.  Every single bank / strategist / fund has the same exact rosy forecast - wall streets a herd and following the lead animals in the stampede off the cliff!

 

wonder if this gets me booted off WSO? Is this woke street oasis yet? The banks all are. 
 

 

 
Jan 18, 2021 - 12:01am

Silver banana not because I agree with you, but because I want to defend your ability to say it. I've seen 0 evidence that belief in conspiracy theories is on the rise or more dangerous than in the past (https://www.livescience.com/are-conspiracy-theory-beliefs-rising.html), and nothing justifies the authoritarian response / censorship. 

In response to the question itself, I'm bullish for 2021 but can someone more intelligent than me please explain why the growing big government / MMT / more activist fed setup doesn't mirror what we had in the post-war period? I think popular narrative is that there was an oil + Vietnam war shock, but CPI was double digits ex-oil and prior war-related shocks weren't lasting. We know productivity growth in the 1970s was crap and market flat for 10 years in real terms.

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