Public markets at all-time highs. Retails going crazy. Staggering returns for investors in game-changing ideas or memes like ARK, bitcoin, TSLA, etc.
Bear thesis: COVID resurgence might happen. US kind of in a political turmoil, and lots of stimulus, lots of people unemployed.
Bull thesis: Recovery will take place. Fed stimulus. ???
Are you excited? Scared?
| Best Public Markets Gig? ER, MM HF, SM HF, or LO AM? | 13 | 2d | ||
| +42 | How to start a family office (HF rainmaker) | 17 | 1d | |
| +34 | Law to Quant Pivot? | 10 | 1d | |
| +22 | Starting Personal Account | 11 | 1m | |
| +22 | Looking for a Fund Manager to partner with to start a new fund. | 15 | 10m | |
| +21 | People who work at hedge funds, what made you interested initially? | 13 | 15h | |
| +20 | How to destress at Pod HF? | 8 | 11h | |
| +19 | Hedge Fund WLB | 6 | 1d | |
| +19 | HF Final Round Interview | 4 | 4d | |
| +17 | Most appealing public credit seats out of RX? | 1 | 4d |
Career Resources
Get instant access to lessons taught by experienced private equity pros and bulge bracket investment bankers including financial statement modeling, DCF, M&A, LBO, Comps and Excel Modeling.
Bear thesis: Big Tech is already pushing to influence Biden’s administration ahead of pushback against said companies from regulators and progressive groups. Should regulators bring the hammer down I expect a social media bloodbath
Bull thesis: The FED will literally bail out anyone
Bull Thesis: Fed keeps pumping apparently endless money into the system. Valuations don't matter because fomo and sentiment.
Bear Thesis: Unemployment benefits, eviction ban expire. More businesses get shaken out and end up bankrupt. Tax cut reversion during the democratic presidency?
Bear thesis: https://twitter.com/FatTailCapital/status/695779009267892225
Bull thesis: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11485/c11485.pdf
Bull thesis: papi powell, Robin hood still exists, rates aren't going anywhere for another while longer, employment is only going to get better from here
Bear thesis: Wild valuations, eventually raising rates, COVID 2.0, corporate taxes, Care Act ends, robinhooders get jobs and can't buy calls all day
seems like the fed has made this no longer a free market. worried about implications
Bull Case: the world wakes up and realizes that the party that stands for freedom of speech, law and order, and capitalism actually won the rigged election. The orange man is reinstated. Markets surge on capitalism, de-regulation, and relative world peace.
bear case: we are living in it! The man with the melting brain whose most notable legislature resulted in the imprisonment of hundreds of thousands of minorities and the VP whose grandfather was a slave trader, who made her career by sleeping to the top of the SF political scene, all while locking up minorities for marijuana charges and not going after the corrupt SF political scene are inaugurated, after a clearly rigged election. The media/politicians/tech now hide/push back on any racial discord in the US. Racism is cured for the next 4 years until this party needs to bring it back so they can scare minorities to vote for them. After 4 years of hearing every day how trump is a Russian spy and Russians rigged the election for him, even bringing up the fact that some actual fishy things happened this election makes people condemnable. After 4 years of violent protests and 9 months of democratic leaders/media/tech actively encouraging the looting of businesses and burning of cities.... any political violence is now seen as terrorism. The woke strategists that forecast doom and gloom for the markets under Trump also forecast great things for markets under melty brain... all of which turns out to be wrong! The effects of stimulus are already priced in, and the idea that the party of censorship/socialism would not enact business crippling measures until the economy has recovered is going out the window before the new regime is even officially in! 15$ minimum wage after democratic governors forced businesses closed for the last year... talk about kneeling on the neck! Then the corporate tax hikes in 2H 2021, followed by individual tax hikes in 2022. Every single bank / strategist / fund has the same exact rosy forecast - wall streets a herd and following the lead animals in the stampede off the cliff!
wonder if this gets me booted off WSO? Is this woke street oasis yet? The banks all are.
https://miro.medium.com/max/960/1*dsYNwEAIA57WXUbAMmYxLQ.gif
Based. They threw poop at him for he spoke the truth.
Silver banana not because I agree with you, but because I want to defend your ability to say it. I've seen 0 evidence that belief in conspiracy theories is on the rise or more dangerous than in the past (https://www.livescience.com/are-conspiracy-theory-beliefs-rising.html), and nothing justifies the authoritarian response / censorship.
In response to the question itself, I'm bullish for 2021 but can someone more intelligent than me please explain why the growing big government / MMT / more activist fed setup doesn't mirror what we had in the post-war period? I think popular narrative is that there was an oil + Vietnam war shock, but CPI was double digits ex-oil and prior war-related shocks weren't lasting. We know productivity growth in the 1970s was crap and market flat for 10 years in real terms.
unironically long TSLA (this valuation is high tho), ARKK, Bitcoin
interest rates are so low, value investing is dead, tech tech tech all day baby
just curious - still hold this view?
lmao
Bought the dip with both ARKK and Tesla, own a lot of ARKF and ARKG and Bitcoin. Yeah Wells Fargo and John Deere might be going up, but zoom out to see the big picture. Zoom and peloton and other growth stocks have taken a beating, but they will still massively outperform value of the next few years.
Preach. Many of these companies have insane revenues, and the good ones have a path to profitability if they aren't already. Calling this a bubble the same way the early 2000s was a bubble is just ignorant. That said, still tail hedging my bets...
Quas libero aut quia expedita non eos. Qui reprehenderit doloribus fugiat et ab et suscipit at. Occaecati ut ipsam et. Porro veritatis dolor quos nulla dolores velit. Sapiente omnis eos molestias explicabo eum consequatur eum.
Impedit sint tempora ut quia. Voluptatem similique veniam fugit est. Facilis ut quo dolor qui. Debitis illo voluptatem voluptatum eveniet saepe similique dolorem. Laborum sunt asperiores sed ex. Culpa unde nemo ea animi eaque. Laboriosam eos non consequuntur beatae sed ea libero labore.
Nemo qui rerum nesciunt. Aperiam quam enim nostrum et rerum provident. Velit enim debitis culpa blanditiis.
Ullam voluptatem voluptates et. Veritatis et eos ea laborum. Repellendus voluptas sed in et officia. Nihil nihil laborum mollitia laborum. Impedit minima repellendus ipsam. Praesentium non quia deleniti amet excepturi suscipit rerum. Beatae eveniet esse quas omnis ducimus incidunt.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...