Maybe COVID won't be that bad

earthwalker7's picture
Rank: Human | 15,562

I had my hospital-followup interview with one of the lead researchers working on COVID here in Hong Kong. (I was in hospital with COVID in March)

He gave positive views and insights. The future of COVID is likely just going to bear similarities to the flu, in that we'll see a new version of the virus every 18 months or so. The virus will continue to mutate rapidly, so even if you get COVID and develop antibodies you'll likely only have 12 months of immunity. We're just going to have to live with the seasonality of this disease.

The doc anticipates a vaccine will be available in the next 18 months. And the increased availability of more-accurate tests is also promising. Now that the medical system has a better understanding of how to treat the virus, the fatality rate has declined. HK's fatality rate has fallen to 0.5%. Things are worse in the US (he gave his thoughts as to why, but put a pin in that). The world isn't going to end, and the economies of the world will open back up, likely sooner than later. Wearing masks will still be necessary for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is developed.

The medical research and clinical practice have advanced rapidly. There is a solid understanding of the virus and how to treat it. He said the Interferon has emerged as the most effective in fighting the virus, according to him and his team. The cocktail I was given, with remdesivir and kaletra. is now seen as less effective, and there will be more migration in his view towards Interferon.

Both he and some of my US MD friends have stated that hydroxychloroquine is a bit more risky. But it really matters whom you speak with. As a counter-point I'm also familiar with a clinical practice physician in the US who has been a big proponent of using hydroxychloroquine in concert with other medication. I think we'll see greater treatment consensus over time.

Comments (59)

Jun 24, 2020

Isn't that just what happens with all new diseases?

From my understanding, there usually is a trade-off between fatality/incurability and contagiousness.

Issue is when a new disease comes along, it takes considerable amount of time to find a cure/vaccine. Once a vaccine/cure is found, then you just need to tweak it a little bit when the virus mutates.

I don't think we should let our mental guards down.

Financial Data Science

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Jun 24, 2020

Sure, somewhat. Not all new diseases get vaccines quickly, or post-infection treatments quickly identified.

Jun 25, 2020

I typed a reply but it got deleted.

I basically said I agree with your points, I think we're opening up too soon, and I hope we wear masks when we're sick and stop shaking hands even after COVID because the next normal flu season.

"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary." - Nassim Taleb

Jun 25, 2020

How did your doctor arrive to a 0.5 fatality rate. Nobody really knows how many asymptomAtic cases there are. Things seem to be quite crazy in India, Pakistan and Brazil recently. I bring these up because these countries along with China make up a big portion of immigrants

Jun 26, 2020

I didn't ask. I presume he's using
fatalities / confirmed positive cases

HK had about 1000 cases total confirmed, and nearly no fatalities, thanks to early testing and a robust and free public healthcare system

Jun 26, 2020

cdc already stated below 0.5% in US... this is not major news

Jun 26, 2020
Jun 25, 2020

i'd love to get your opinion on this new study

"A new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed. Findings suggest an alternative way of thinking about the COVID-19 pandemic."

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/resea...

WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) | My Linkedin

Jun 26, 2020

very interesting. If the study is correct then the US is quite the hotbed of infection and is vastly under-tested/screened. This is the precise opposite of the story coming out of the White House.

"In New York, for example, the researchers' model suggested that at least 9% of the state's entire population was infected by the end of March. After the state conducted antibody testing on 3,000 residents, they found a 13.9% infection rate, or 2.7 million New Yorkers."

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Jun 25, 2020
earthwalker7:

Both he and some of my US MD friends have stated that hydroxychloroquine is a bit more risky.

Beyond that, the FDA revokes emergency use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 and cited recent data showing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine offer no benefits for coronavirus patients.

There is not only zero benefit to the drug but there is incredible risk to those who take it.

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Funniest
Jun 26, 2020

Have they tried drinking bleach and injecting UV lights under their skin? Asking for an orange friend.

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Jun 26, 2020

Personally, I found that funny. Not sure why all the MS

Don't @ me

Jun 26, 2020

We chat about this in my team (HC group) a lot. Theoretically it should work. It's an immunosuppressive, just like steroids or other random things that some doctors are taking (allergy meds, etc), and it's used prophylactically to prevent the rare phenomenon (cytokine storm) that ends up offing young and healthy people. Basically, some people are a little too healthy and have a really extreme reaction to infection with Covid (or other foreign agents) and the immune response that is mounted is too strong, leading to fever, clinical shock, etc.

Big trials won't show the benefit of things like hydroxychloroquine when it DOES have a positive benefit because most people would not have ended up with cytokine release syndrome, which is rare. It's not of much use at the point of CRS onset (active treatment, as opposed to preventative/ prophylactic) because it's a weak immunosuppressive. The IL-6 drugs (tocilizumab) that they're now raving about are also immunosuppressives, they are just really fucking strong and are targeted against a specific cytokine that has a big role in the storm.

It's just a matter of science and I don't think it's right for the NYT or news outlets to be so sensational about all of these treatments after one-off google searches and skimming of Wikipedia articles. Tocilizumab has been available for CRS (in a different context) for fucking years. It's not some scientific phenomenon or amazing discovery. News outlets need to shut the fuck up

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Jun 26, 2020

I think we can all agree that proper longitudinal studies need to be done, and quickly. Neither the press nor POTUS should be the arbiter or prescriber of treatments. I've heard physicians weigh in on both sides, in terms of use of HCQ. One of my friends is an ER doctor + surgeon in California (surgeon assigned to ER duties) and is very much against use of HCQ because of the cardiac issues to be known with it. I think the key is to let the science speak for itself, not let a particular treatment become politicized.

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Jun 26, 2020

I'm curious what your age is, current health, in that CoVid landed you in the hospital? I'm avoiding it of course, but honestly not that concerned if I get it. Thoughts?

Jun 26, 2020

WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) | My Linkedin

Jun 26, 2020

if you're younger and not a fat shit.. you're fine. Look at the statistics. Legit better than the flu unless ur 70-80+

people keep trying to argue it... look at the stats.

I'm foolish to keep getting sucked into these forums, but I've said it many times... IFR will be below 0.5% (prob decently below) when all said an done and these closures/lockdowns are just fuck ups. Becoming pretty clear...

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Jun 27, 2020

plz refute/go to the gym once this opens

see below lol

Jun 29, 2020

Still can't help but be curious about the claims that this can cause permanent/long-term damage. While the data is still scant, there have been documented instances of people who have come away from this with long-term physical damage to certain organs.

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Jun 26, 2020

42M and in decent (not perfect) health. I beat the virus in 2 days. Thereafter I went to the hospital once I was already healthy just to get a test and see if I HAD been infected. HK however has mandatory quarantine, so I was put in the hospital to keep me out of general population, not because I needed treatment.

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Jun 29, 2020

Got it, thanks! Also read your prior post on the topic that was linked.

Jun 26, 2020

Fucking 12-18 months with masks mate fuck me. By the way my gym has never been as clean as it is now with all the hygiene requirements that are enforced by law atm, hilarious

  • Intern in IB-M&A
Jun 26, 2020

My state still won't let gyms open for another 2 weeks :(

Have you noticed it being more busy than usual? I'm afraid it's going to be like after New Years when everyone who hasn't worked out in 15 years suddenly decides that they have liked their quarantine walks and wants to join a gym. (Not shaming, just dreading going at 5am to avoid the crowds)

Jun 27, 2020

No, quite the contrary actually, there are hardly any people in the gym. Its tedious to always wear a mask and disinfect after every single equipment use so I guess people don't bother. Its nice weather out anyways

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  • Analyst 3+ in IB - Gen
Jun 26, 2020

where the motherfuck is Dr. Dick-in-my-ass with his hot take??

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Jun 30, 2020

WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) | My Linkedin

Jun 26, 2020

Herd immunity. We will all get it and need to live with it. learn to live

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.

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Most Helpful
  • VP in IB - Gen
Jun 26, 2020

Not sure why this is so hard to understand...

This is not the flu. Some of the best, most respected, and most trusted doctors around the WORLD are saying that the U.S. is not taking COVID-19 seriously enough. Countries like HK, China, and S. Korea who are faring better? They're significantly smaller OR the vast majority of citizens are complying with mandated guidelines. In Russia, you have to get government permission to leave your house (at least before).

If people rapidly contract COVID-19, then the ICUs will fill up. That's means people with other ICU needs will also be shit out of luck. So we're not even taking the indirect fatalities caused by COVID-19 into account.

Next, even if we build hospitals like 7-Elevens, manufacture the equipment 24/7, secure enough PPE, where are all the additional nurses/doctors going to come from?

Lastly, let's say who gives a fuck about old/fat people? You don't think they have significant spending power in aggregate? Don't forget all the young people that have underlying conditions and may not even know it.

I believe deaths would've been worse had it not been for the initial shut down. Why is TX pausing reopening if COVID-19 is just another flu? Last I checked, Texas is die hard Republican, too.

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Jun 26, 2020

I have clarified the above statement. COVID is not "just another flu" clearly. But it does bear similarities to the flu in that it will mutate rapidly and we can expect having to deal with the disease on a seasonal basis.

My point in making this post was to share at least one researcher's thoughts, albeit this is anecdotal and not scientific at all.

Jun 27, 2020

Lol on the comp to Russia and China. But yes, the docs that initially said COVID was nothing and couldn't transmit from animals to humans, or that masks were useless (Fauci lol), that the world was ending and millions are dead within the US... ya they're doing great, I agree.

Also, arguing to take care of the old and fat because they can also spend money, while presumably agreeing with the lockdown and economic shutdown is an idiotic reasoning. You realize GDP/ employment are plummeting due to the lockdown right? GDP is expected to drop 15-20% Q2. But yes I do agree, fat people spend money too... cannot forget the economic impact of hostess products.

However, I do have statistics to share with you, feel free to counter with any you may have dug up.

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-im...
RE: data on COVID beds (reminder most states are re-opening to a decent capacity). I do agree that beds/ICU beds need to be watched closely as we mustn't overload the system (heart of the matter). But I do not think it would get there. FL has already stated they are fine in regards to the recent uptick in positive cases, most new cases are young (see further below) and TX just slowed their reopening as you touched on, by closing bars and going back to 50% restaurant.. nothing crazy.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field...
RE: field hospital usage etc. (many makeshift/field hospitals built, most never touched). Obviously there is some give & take tied to the shutdowns, but see below. I'd argue that we need to take care of the elderly / at risk vs the entire population. And lastly, unfortunately ppl die and the ppl clogging the hospital systems/ICU are the elderly and sick. Life moves on. CC average age of death above average age of life expectancy.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13...
RE: IFR - "Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%)" (Please clarify your point re: young ppl being affected, including those with underlying illnesses. Thx).

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-c...
RE: IFR - Below 49yrs old, IFR is 0.0% and under 65yr is 0.14% (huh so ~all working aged individuals).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/in... https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/25/y...

RE: IFR / demo breakouts: Deaths are predominantly over 70yrs with pre-existing conditions - "For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death"

Obviously positive cases will increase as some states reopen and as testing increases. Quite honestly increasing positive counts means nothing (again for most people the virus is nothing, fucking wow). If you cannot connect those dots idk man. People will get COVID; the point is that for the majority of people it is NBD, legit nothing. So anyone who wants to stay inside, etc... they should, but locking down the country is wild and will be found to be a massive miscalculation (turning off the economy for a 0% IFR virus for working aged ppl, plz refute). Again if you're scared to go outside, do not go outside. If you think the government knows what is best for everyone, I have a bridge to sell you. This whole lockdown was to reduce spread/reduce strain on the medical system, which was done... if you would like to sit in a bubble suit for 18 months have at it, however, every citizen should not be required to hold your hand.

Shit on this all you want, look at the data (plz refute it)... try to use the elite WSO cognitive skills you all believe you hold vs. the doctor on CNN said bad.

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Jun 27, 2020
apricots:

You realize GDP/ employment are plummeting due to the lockdown right? GDP is expected to drop 15-20% Q2.

If the US took this seriously in February, it probably didn't need to shutdown. Also, the fact that a lot of people politicized wearing masks and other basic guidelines (which they refused to follow) is partly why the shutdown lasted so long. I mean WTF is up with people who don't follow basic hygiene cuz "FrEeDoM"?

People were pretty compliant in Massachusetts and Connecticut, and looks like the two states are the best at handling COVID and the first ones to reopen successfully.

Remember that Korea never shutdown......

Financial Data Science

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Jun 27, 2020

Protests didn't really spread coronavirus that much. Otherwise, you would have seen spikes in areas like DC, NYC, or Chicago

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Jun 27, 2020

all the thick boys shitting on this lol

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Jun 26, 2020

Probably not a great time for me to try to move back to the US and network my way into a job though, is it?

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Jun 27, 2020

A few weeks ago, a WSJ review found that 40% of all COVID deaths in the US occurred in nursing homes.

Yesterday (6/26), a NYT review found similar numbers. They claim 43%, around 53k deaths, occurred in nursing home residents. They also found 282k confirmed cases among residents.

Just to give context, there are only about 1.4m people in nursing homes in the entire country. This means:
- nearly 4% of these people have already died from COVID
- 20% of them have already gotten it, and that assumes that the vast majority of cases were identified
- despite comprising 0.4% of the US population, they account for 43% of deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/corona...
More stats: NYC death rate per 100k for people aged 18-44 was/is 20. For people aged 75+, that death was/is 1500.

This disease is insanely devastating to elderly people and should be the focus of our response.

Array

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Jun 27, 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pence-postpones-f...
Mike Pence, you are a LiBuReL SOROS-CONTROLLED AGENT. I can't believe Soros and Hillary got to my personal hero like this

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Jun 27, 2020

you're kidding right?

Financial Data Science

Jun 27, 2020

I think the protests ahve exacerbated all of this. Poeple woh were idiots and did not wear masks and protest like in Florida and Nebrasks are the issue!

Maybe COVID won

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.

Jun 28, 2020

no, it's because Nebraska and Florida reopened early. A good amount of people at the protests wore masks. Notice how DC, NYC, and Chicago didn't have a spike from protesting?

Jun 27, 2020

What are the chances the virus mutates into something benign/non-lethal?

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
Jun 27, 2020

I'd say about the same as the chance you marry a supermodel.

Financial Data Science

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Jun 27, 2020

Mliton, you don't know who Yankee Doodle is. If he is a yacht boy, he will marry a hot girl. Then, you are implying that it will evolve. Pleas think before you post on thie sforum . ![think]
think

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.

Jun 28, 2020

COVID has been and continues to be pretty bad but it is not the end of the world. Unfortunately, our leadership has been terrible on this issue and as a result, more people died than should have died. I could go into a myriad of reasons as to how our leadership dropped the ball on this but I will only make a couple of statements about our leadership's failure here. It is very unfortunate that the POTUS and Vice POTUS have refused to wear masks. This sends a terrible message to people who look to them for leadership. It is very disturbing to me that they held a rally in Oklahoma and implicitly encouraged a disregard of taking precautions.

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  • Analyst 2 in IB-M&A
Jun 30, 2020

Why the fuck are you getting monkey shit? What you said is true - doesn't matter if you support Trump for lower taxes/pro-business agenda, anyone with a semblance of a brain can see that the current administration has completely botched the coronavirus response.

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Jun 30, 2020

Feels like we've "lost contain" (football metaphor). Past two weeks have been eye opening (personal level). Haven't felt this scared about this issue until now. I'm in California.

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Jun 30, 2020
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Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.

Jun 30, 2020
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