Steve Eisman says Hong Kong protests are a possible ‘black swan’

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/steve-eisman-says…

"I think the potential black swan, if there is a black swan right now, is what's happening in Hong Kong right now," said Eisman on CNBC's Power Lunch. "If things escalate even further in Hong Kong, that would have a real impact back on the global economy."

"The people who are protesting are not backing down, the Chinese government doesn't seem to be backing down, so if cooler heads don't prevail it's possible things in Hong Kong could get very ugly."

How credible do you think his claims are? I'd imagine if China sends in their military to quash the protests, that would be a major geopolitical event, but if not, do you think the HK protests can still bring down the global economy?

WSO Elite Modeling Package

  • 6 courses to mastery: Excel, Financial Statement, LBO, M&A, Valuation and DCF
  • Elite instructors from top BB investment banks and private equity megafunds
  • Includes Company DB + Video Library Access (1 year)

Comments (7)

Aug 15, 2019 - 4:16pm

This is going to get very ugly because China is in no position to concede to HK because it sets a precedent they cannot allow as all their force projection comes from their unified nationalism (or appearance of) and power centralization. China will not take the chance for this to spread to the mainland - the state's biggest fear is a protest similar to the yellow vests across the entire country. Look at peasant revolution history in China I imagine a media blackout soon plus many disappearances and unaccounted for deaths.

Most Helpful
Aug 15, 2019 - 9:07am

No, I do not think the Hong Kong protests will "bring down" the global economy, but they can certainly have a negative impact. That said, I'm firmly on the side of the protesters and freedom.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

  • 5
Aug 15, 2019 - 6:02pm
CRE:

No, I do not think the Hong Kong protests will "bring down" the global economy, but they can certainly have a negative impact. That said, I'm firmly on the side of the protesters and freedom.

Freedom of what? Freedom of blocking the airport and freedom to beat down anyone on the side of the Chinese government?

Learn More

300+ video lessons across 6 modeling courses taught by elite practitioners at the top investment banks and private equity funds -- Excel Modeling -- Financial Statement Modeling -- M&A Modeling -- LBO Modeling -- DCF and Valuation Modeling -- ALL INCLUDED + 2 Huge Bonuses.

Learn more
Aug 15, 2019 - 3:25pm

I think Hawaii will secede from the US before Hong Kong secedes from China, and they are both working hard at it...

Be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
Start Discussion

Total Avg Compensation

June 2021 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (9) $911
  • Vice President (35) $364
  • Associates (203) $232
  • 2nd Year Analyst (115) $151
  • Intern/Summer Associate (97) $145
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (27) $145
  • 1st Year Analyst (420) $131
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (338) $82