The future of capitalism and high finance jobs

In a stunning article https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/05/democracies-are-on... makes the point through research that democracies and capitalism as a whole is losing out to the authoritarian governments. What do you think is the future of global capitalism and high finance? Will bankers become non existent as businesses are simply operated by some central planning authority? Or do you think that this trend will actually lead to capitalism and democratic ideals making a comeback?

Comments (12)

Jul 6, 2019

As long as bankers are doing gods work there will be banker on this planet we call earth.

Jul 6, 2019

Ok but if things become more state sponsored then where is the role for the banker who is working on mergers between companies or dealing with the financing of companies?

Jul 6, 2019

Authoritarian led capitalism works great when your model is copying what has worked in the West and you have a clear road map made by the Western nations over the past few decades. Its not at all clear that it will be successful in fostering innovation (read: technological progress) that is necessary for more "developed" nations. I still think nations that have freedoms -- US, Western Europe, Canada, Japan (maybe) -- have the advantage in truly pushing the frontiers.

There was another article on the FT that said that Chinese private market entrepreneurs are feeling as 2nd-class citizens because of state favoritism. https://www.ft.com/content/fcb06530-680a-11e9-9adc...
You always have to be very sceptical of the news media, lots of sensational content. They always over/under-react to developments.

    • 1
Most Helpful
Jul 6, 2019

What @CAS_89 said.

Also said authoritarian governments and SOEs will still need to raise capital (typically from dumb foreigners that they can screw over if need be rather than their local constituents). That will require bankers. Said children/connected people of said governments/SOEs will need to have their money managed, get funding for their pet projects etc. That will also require bankers. When they are planning for a doomsday scenario with looted wealth/corrupt profits etc to hide/"diversify" their capital they will need bankers.

If capital markets continue to exist (and they typically do despite forms of government since capital flows are/can be global), you will need bankers. Since you will have capital markets you will also needs sales and trading. That will also require bankers.

In short yes there will be a need for bankers. Maybe not as many as today (or maybe more). Maybe not paid as much as now (or maybe more - though probably nothing like pre GFC times).

Re-reading my post, perhaps we should become trusted private bankers in an EM/FM... a little moral flexibility might go a long way...

Good Luck

    • 4
Jul 6, 2019

Ultimately access to capital, competition and markets for resources / solutions make the world go round. That's the genesis of innovation which leads to the next new thing. Hard for their to be a next new thing without it. Rule of law, property rights and a free people are other requirements. As long as a free people create and innovate, others will want in.

    • 1
Learn More

Side-by-side comparison of top modeling training courses + exclusive discount through WSO here.

Jul 6, 2019

All those countries have done is copy what works in the west and personally I don't believe many of the numbers published by places like China. Complete sham just like their ponzi scheme real stock market.

Jul 6, 2019

You can believe the earth is flat but that won't stop it from being round. In 2017, roughly 500,000 trademarks were filed in the US. In the same year, China filed 5.2 million. China has and will continue to copy and steal IP, but make no mistake - they are also innovating for themselves, and on a huge scale.

    • 2
    • 1
Jul 8, 2019
Lloyd BIankfein:

You can believe the earth is flat but that won't stop it from being round. In 2017, roughly 500,000 trademarks were filed in the US. In the same year, China filed 5.2 million. China has and will continue to copy and steal IP, but make no mistake - they are also innovating for themselves, and on a huge scale.

So you believe trademarks filed is a good proxy for innovation? Kylie Jenner tried to trademark "Kylie"? Do you think this good data?

Jul 8, 2019

As this sites local "anarchist," for a true lack of a better word, I agree 100% that modern democracies are moving towards authoritarianism however I don't think its necessarily about capitalism. Citizens in the US tend to believe that Democrats and Republicans are on opposite sides of the political spectrum and that's just not true. They're both ultimately pushing for bigger, and bigger government. Both parties are very, very authoritarian and so obviously with only authoritarian options that's the direction the US is moving.

Jul 8, 2019

Article is all about the rise of China and decline of Europe, essentially. Wouldn't read too much further into it than that. There are many reasons other than democratic capitalism vs. authoritarian capitalism as to why Europe is declining and China is rising. I'd be more worried about the rising political divide in the U.S. and the ironic effect of Trump being president meaning we are likely to go towards becoming more socialist, if not starting in 2020 then certainly after 8 years of Trump. I'd say we could use some more socialism in our society but if we go to the Bernie/AOC extreme we are fucked in the long-term.

    • 2
Jul 8, 2019

Even some kind of Orwellian post-capitalistic dystopia would require brokers and agents of sorts to manage governmental/sovereign "wealth", whatever that wealth would look like. I don't think this is in the cards and we have many, many more years of free-flowing capital markets before anything of the sorts could ever happen. Super interesting to think about though.

For anyone interested in monetary theory I recommend reading up on the regression theorem and in particular Von Mises' Theory on Money and Credit...super dry but has tons of principles and applications that are relevant even 100 years after he wrote it.

Jul 8, 2019
Comment