Might just be me noticing this, but I feel just about once a day I see or hear about someone starting their own boutique business or doing something "outside" of the corporate/job world. Makes me thing, if the market crashes and people cut back on spending, will we see a lot more people out of work because a lot of their strategies depend on the market to keep going up.
For example, the other day I saw someone I went to high school with announced they quit their job to start a "luxury chef business" (they went to school to be a golf pro). Just makes me think, if people cut back, will there be a market for things like this. Same with people doing FIRE, a lot of them have a projected % they will make in the market, with a cut for what they will re-invest and what they will spend. Makes sense, but you need the market to continue to go up.
Might just be how I've configured my social media/algos online, but it seems to me that there is a lot of shoddy finance advice out there that works now because of the bull market. This leads to overconfidence by people who have no idea about investing, but they keep buying.
There's smarter people than me on this board, figure someone has a projection or idea about it.
It will be worse than the last one for the same reasons that was worse than the one before, etc. etc. Government policy.
As for the examples you listed I don't think there is a corelation. For example the top .1% won't be firing their chefs because of a downturn. Businesses that are seen as luxury goods for the top 10 to 1% will face a significant impact. But the thing about modern W-2 replacement entreprenuership is that much of it is highly scaleable and therefore have a significantly better odds of survivng than people who started these same type of W-2 replacement business pre 2007.
I don't think so.
FIRE is just a massive delayed gratification. 10-15 years sacrificing a lot of fun in what many consider the best part of their life. I don't think most people who start this actually make it for obvious reasons
Crypto is just more risk for more reward. It may be fun for single, white collar millennials and gen z but are people really gonna put their kids college money or retirement fund on the next shitcoin?
Entrepreneurship, eh, it has to happen but really only the strong survive and it's been like this forever.
Influencers can get people interested in the 3 paths above but they can't really help them succeed.
So in general, my view is that all of them may seem glamorous but require risk, hard work, and/or sacrifice. But there are things you can learn from these cult-y movements. Save a little more than you have to, put a little bit of your portfolio in high-risk, high-reward assets, start a business if there's a true market need in that niche
on FIRE, do you think most people don't make it because they give up on the idea, or they try it out but realize it doesn't work?
Maybe they realize that retiring at 40 is only cool if you can live to 80. Seeing someone drop dead of a heart attack at 48 will make you rethink your life.
I really think the people realize that retiring when all of your are still working is pretty boring.
Most FIRE people want to get out of the “rat race”. But in order to do that you need to basically double down on the rat race for 15 years of your life
first of all im certainly not smarter, so theres that.
I think its how you have configured your social algos, my discover feeds are full of hot chicks.
Besides that, there have always been snake oil salesmen, what makes it different this time? There also have always been retards who start dumb businesses. The only thing that might be different is the whole crypto thing. Personally, I don't invest in it because its just way too volatile and unregulated. I also barely know anyone who invests in crypto (at least not meaningfully). But does it really matter in the grand scheme of things? I doubt it. The idiots who invest (more like gamble) in crypto would have dumped their money into something else anyways, so, again, I doubt it really matters in the grand scheme of things.
tldr: no, but im a retard
this is a good take
I think that your feeling is a little bit of selection bias. First, social media/human beings love outliers so you are going to see way more people doing different things/jobs in social media than in real life. Second, you are on this site so I would guess that your social group is mostly from families at the top of the income distribution that is more likely to follow the path on your post, remember that per capita income in the US is around 30k dollars a year. I think these phenomena are not even close enough to be mainstream to make a big difference in economic performance, perhaps some years/decades from now this will change.
Another point to consider is that in third world countries during a crisis informal work helps to stabilize income and not the other direction. I do not know if in the US this is the same because of widespread regulation, it is much harder to be fired and become a weekend electrician/chef/street vendor than in countries with less regulation.
Best thing about NFTs is that they revealed the true nature of cryptos. They aren't currencies, but collectibles. You collect them because other people also want to collect them. Like stamps, they also had a primary use, but it is no longer relevant for the collectible market. Hard to say how long it will stick around, eventually humanity will move onto the next fad, however if you bought btc at 400 and sold it at 50k, pat yourself on the back and move onto the next thing.
I think the answer you're looking for is monetary policy.
The amount of money people that watch crypto influencers have in the market is a proverbial drop in the bucket. These are people with less than $10,000 invested and have been trading in the markets for less than a year (many were pulled in by GameStop show, or by Bitcoin). They will flee at first sign of trouble for sure, but wont have a large impact on a potential market correction
rather than make up some BS prediction, I'd like to dissect the premise of your question
first, by asking "will the next market crash be_____" you're presuming that the answer is knowable and that knowing the answer can lead to something that is a net gain for you/your firm. take a look at the track record of various forecasters, even the ones who make broad predictions and actually have an accountable track record (byron wein and bob doll) are often no better than a coin flip. so first, remove the idea that ANYONE can predict with any sort of reliability over things which you can capitalize on. that's first. now, even if you ignored what I just wrote and assume it's knowable, how would you profit off of this? presumably by doing some trade or starting some business that would benefit from said market collapse. to which I retort: if you're worried about FIRE guys' return projections being a linchpin of their success, isn't your logic of profiting off their bad logic just as faulty?
second, let's assume you realize that people can't predict but you worry about some broader market contagion affecting your portfolio, to which I reply "why should this potential for a crash be treated any differently?" your portfolio should be positioned in such a way that random crashes, recessions, depressions won't send you to the poor house. the way you do this is by diversification, focusing on survival rather than maximizing CAGR, strict avoidance of leverage in liquid investments, and an eschewing of positive feedback by comparison. more to the point - do you think warren buffett gives a flying fuck if the dow drops 35%? what about 60%? hell no he doesn't, because he's not worried about the companies he owns surviving, and moreover he's got cash on the sidelines to pick up some fallen angels. he lives below his means so that his lifestyle doesn't depend on his net worth's highest watermark, and since he's thinking long term, why would he let a short term event affect his thinking?
third, let's assume you know all of that but you're really focused on the next crash being "worse" or "extra bad" (my words), so what? I think the people you describe will be the ones that hurt, in which case, I say fuck em. people that rely on lofty projections to meet their goals, believe they can predict ANYTHING with reliability over long periods of time beyond random luck, and miss the forest through the trees like some strict FIRE disciples, good luck but good riddance. take care of #1, and fuck the rest
godspeed
I'm the OP Good points, very academic.
I think my point though/question/thought is that most people aren't doing academic exercises when considering they're finance moves. More a of a "stocks just go up" mentality; or "the market makes ~10% a year so I'll just live on that to do FIRE" ideas. Maybe more consumer confidence.
and my point is, so what if "most people" don't make intelligent financial moves? what bearing does that have on your folio? let 'em learn their lesson if it ever happens, focus on your stuff, not everybody else's. bubbles are only bad to live through if you're not diversified and/or overleveraged
What're your thoughts on investing a large portion of your portfolio into TQQQ if you're holding for 15+ years?
I don't own it, therefore I cannot recommend owning it
You'll get massacred by volatility drag.
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