Which One of You Dopes Proposed Last Night?
I'd like to engage in a little thought exercise today. Call it a refresher on Probability and Statistics. You see, my thesis is that at least one and perhaps several members of WSO got engaged last night, and I'd like to find out if I'm right. So let's start with the facts:
- WSO has 60,000+ members
- 90%+ of that membership are males aged 18-30
- The overwhelming majority of WSO members either work or aspire to work in a field where prestige and social stability are highly sought after, almost to the exclusion of everything else
Now let's look at some assumptions:
- The vast majority of members come from a background of at least some privilege so they're environmentally predisposed to the reckless optimism required to float a marriage proposal
- Bankers are linear thinkers and abhor creativity and originality, hence a proposal on Valentine's Day
- Proposing on Valentine's Day is also a form of risk management, as the intended fiancée is theoretically less likely to decline on the most romantic day of the year
- I'm assuming at least a plurality of WSO members came from stable, two-parent households and therefore only understand the odds against a successful marriage intellectually and not experientially
- At least half of WSO members secretly realize the woman they're dating is too good for them and want to lock her down before she figures it out
Again, those are assumptions but I doubt they're far off the mark.
So, when you combine the facts that 90%+ of WSO members are in the "marriage window" age-wise (and that percentage equals over 50,000 members of a community obsessed with prestige and stability) with the assumptions that at least half of them are dating up and still believe in the viability of marriage despite all rational evidence to the contrary - and then you throw in Valentine's Day - I'm postulating that it's a statistical impossibility that at least one of you didn't pop the question last night.
So, am I right? I'm just looking for one of you to come clean. I promise you immunity from scorn on this thread, I just want to know that my math is correct. If you got engaged last night or know of another WSO member who did, let's hear about it. And if you think I'm way off base, feel free to let me know that too.







Comments
edmundo, i'm about to
edmundo, i'm about to propose. i've got the rings sized and ordered. seriously. talk me off this ledge.
ivoteforthatguy
edmundo, i'm about to propose. i've got the rings sized and ordered. seriously. talk me off this ledge.
Wait!!!! Are you sure you're not forgetting something?
Hint: PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP!
AwkwardStudentsMeetWarrenBuffett
"Concentrate your energies, your thoughts, and your capital. The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket." -Carnegie
not even close here, ditto on
not even close here, ditto on the "prenup"!
WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) PM me w/ ideas/complaints/q's-or lets meet up if you're in Buenos Aires. My story
walk me through this prenup
walk me through this prenup thing. i think all will benefit from this.
Dude, interesting timing of
Dude, interesting timing of this post. I had a strange dream last night where I married a woman a liked personally but had no sexual attraction to. We had the wedding annulled after 1 week. That, that was basically the dream, although it, it umm was much more impactful than what I just wrote.
Fuck no.
Fuck no.
Under my tutelage, you will grow from boys to men. From men into gladiators. And from gladiators into SWANSONS.
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup would be a one of the great threads on WSO. If anyone is knowledgable/has experience in the area please write a detailed post.
I guarrantee it will be one of the most searched threads. Personally, I'm trying to talk two fraternity brothers into the pre-nup thing but they are so caught up in the whole process that their logical male brains seem to be turned-off.
RagnarDanneskjold wrote: I
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup would be a one of the great threads on WSO. If anyone is knowledgable/has experience in the area please write a detailed post.
I guarrantee it will be one of the most searched threads. Personally, I'm trying to talk two fraternity brothers into the pre-nup thing but they are so caught up in the whole process that their logical male brains seem to be turned-off.
This thread sort of discusses it:
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sell-your-options-dearly-marriage
AwkwardStudentsMeetWarrenBuffett
"Concentrate your energies, your thoughts, and your capital. The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket." -Carnegie
Dont be such a negative
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
seabird wrote: Dont be such a
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
I thought Ed was mega-happily-married this third time around, or something like that.
Anyways. Me? Marriage? Uhhh... no thanks. You see, I like kids. But I only like cute kids. And if my kids weren't cute, then I wouldn't be able to love them.
Yep, I'm honest that way.
I did one better, I got in an
I did one better, I got in an argument with the lady friend at a very nice restaurant and sent her home in a cab. Booyah!
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
seabird wrote: Dont be such a
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
First, I find nothing attractive about the notion of children - bastard or otherwise. The human population is already well above sustainable rates for global resources (most studies peg sustainability somewhere around 1.4 billion humans with no further population growth), so you'd be doing the entire planet a favor (and no one more so than yourself) by not having any children. Mine are adopted (bastards, just like me), so it's a wash.
Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday.
@Angus Yes, I am happily
@Angus Yes, I am happily married this third time around.
happypantsmcgee wrote: I did
I did one better, I got in an argument with the lady friend at a very nice restaurant and sent her home in a cab. Booyah!
So that's a no?
Edmundo Braverman
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
First, I find nothing attractive about the notion of children - bastard or otherwise. The human population is already well above sustainable rates for global resources (most studies peg sustainability somewhere around 1.4 billion humans with no further population growth), so you'd be doing the entire planet a favor (and no one more so than yourself) by not having any children. Mine are adopted (bastards, just like me), so it's a wash.
Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday.
I hope you don't mind me making that last part my signature.
"Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday."
-Eddie
Ed: K, that clears up a lot
Ed: K, that clears up a lot of questions re: where you stand on things.
seabird wrote: Ed: K, that
Ed: K, that clears up a lot of questions re: where you stand on things.
Happy to help.
Nouveau Richie
Wait!!!! Are you sure you're not forgetting something?
Hint: PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP!
Bitch, you wasn't with me shootin' in the gym.
I really think WSO guys
I really think WSO guys should marry earlier in their lives or consider it as a serious option... the girls would have had less time to whore around/become jaded and it would probably give these guys a better perspective of what they want out of life i.e. they'll grow up and make their own goals instead of those assigned to them... its also early enough to give you both options without being bitter if things don't work out.
She said she appreciated my
She said she appreciated my email and would think about it.
Eddie - I think you're going
Eddie - I think you're going to be wrong on this one. I like your stat breakdown but Americans are getting married later & later in life so I think your inclusion of 18-25 year old kids is very optimistic. And I'm also guessing that WSO is even moreso in that range. So I think that your estimate of 50,000 potential proposers is probably half that, maybe even as low as 10,000-ish??? Given that, I think it's likely that there were NO proposals.
In conclusion (I'm giving a very generous 30-cent line):
PROPOSAL ON VALENTINES BY WSO MEMBER
YES +130
NO -160
Relinquis wrote: I really
I really think WSO guys should marry earlier in their lives or consider it as a serious option... the girls would have had less time to whore around/become jaded and it would probably give these guys a better perspective of what they want out of life i.e. they'll grow up and make their own goals instead of those assigned to them... its also early enough to give you both options without being bitter if things don't work out.
Agreed. Stability, moral behaviors and responsibility are good things - I frankly find it surprising and disturbing that so many people in finance, and in our society in general seem to abhor them, and that it is so unpopular and even that there is outright hostility by people to people who are "moral puritans."
Problem here is member v.
Problem here is member v. member who posts. Sure, there are 60k registered users but a great majority of posts come from the same ~300 people. There is very little chance that someone with an account who rarely posts will make one of those few posts something that is guaranteed to generate a shit storm and pretty easily out him if other people at his firm/school/daycare are also WSO users.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
Hahahaha EB you crack me up
Hahahaha EB you crack me up
|| Everything to Gain - Nothing to Lose ||
But feeling good and enjoying life are prerequisites to success, not by products of it - Midas Mulligan Magoo
I'm curious as to how many
I'm curious as to how many people are active users. Active in this case - let's say 3 posts a week.
I did not propose. I sent a
I did not propose. I sent a sexy message to my lover (F) about missing each other
Power and Money do not change men; they only unmask them
When WSO files for its IPO we
When WSO files for its IPO we will get a solid view on the number of "daily users".
RagnarDanneskjold wrote: I'm
I'm curious as to how many people are active users. Active in this case - let's say 3 posts a week.
I'm sure Patrick knows pretty well how active everyone is. I'm on the site a good bit but I don't always post. I'm sure there are tons of users who read religiously but have never posted anything.
FlakieBear wrote: I did not
I did not propose. I sent a sexy message to my lover (F) about missing each other
It was lovely.
My theory is that Eddie asked his previous 6 wives to have a devil's threesome (as a favor for his business contacts) and was shut down. Disgruntled, he divorced all of them.
Under my tutelage, you will grow from boys to men. From men into gladiators. And from gladiators into SWANSONS.
Flake wrote: FlakieBear
I did not propose. I sent a sexy message to my lover (F) about missing each other
It was lovely.
My theory is that Eddie asked his previous 6 wives to have a devil's threesome (as a favor for his business contacts) and was shut down. Disgruntled, he divorced all of them.
Getting a supportive message from the lover friend was even more lovely.
That Eddie guy must be a bad ass macho gangster LOL
Power and Money do not change men; they only unmask them
Did you purposely try to
Did you purposely try to sound like a pedophile?
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
I thought Ed was mega-happily-married this third time around, or something like that.
Anyways. Me? Marriage? Uhhh... no thanks. You see, I like kids. But I only like cute kids. And if my kids weren't cute, then I wouldn't be able to love them.
Yep, I'm honest that way.
If the glove don't fit, you must acquit!
WalMartShopper wrote: Did you
Did you purposely try to sound like a pedophile?
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
I thought Ed was mega-happily-married this third time around, or something like that.
Anyways. Me? Marriage? Uhhh... no thanks. You see, I like kids. But I only like cute kids. And if my kids weren't cute, then I wouldn't be able to love them.
Yep, I'm honest that way.
I hate babies. They look like little fat aliens. My family always tries to get me to hold one "Flake, hold your newborn cousin Flakealina". No. Fuck you.
Under my tutelage, you will grow from boys to men. From men into gladiators. And from gladiators into SWANSONS.
Well Eddie, I'm sorry you
Well Eddie, I'm sorry you haven't gotten any confirmation on your estimates yet. I can't really be of any help; I got married a few years ago.
If it's any consolation I did just decided to buy a house (technically our offer just got accepted), and I'm sure I'm far too young to hit your age requirements for getting that serious in a relationship.
That's the best I can do.
seabird wrote: Relinquis
I really think WSO guys should marry earlier in their lives or consider it as a serious option... the girls would have had less time to whore around/become jaded and it would probably give these guys a better perspective of what they want out of life i.e. they'll grow up and make their own goals instead of those assigned to them... its also early enough to give you both options without being bitter if things don't work out.
Agreed. Stability, moral behaviors and responsibility are good things - I frankly find it surprising and disturbing that so many people in finance, and in our society in general seem to abhor them, and that it is so unpopular and even that there is outright hostility by people to people who are "moral puritans."
@Seabird Have you seen Chuck Murray's new book?
Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010
He's the author of The Bell Curve (which kicked up a bunch of controversy because it broke IQ down along racial lines).
I've been meaning to do a whole post about this, because Murray thinks (as I surmise that you do) that America is destined to fail because of loosening morals, casual bastardy, etc... and he presents a compelling case. His prescription, however, is completely daft. He thinks in order to save the country, the rich (who live by the moral code most to his particular liking) need to come out from behind the walls of their gated communities and live amongst the poor again, so as to teach the poor how to "act right" by example.
I think it's hogwash, as I do most moralizing, but it's interesting nonetheless.
60k users? Eddie, don't sell
60k users? Eddie, don't sell WSO short. :-) We JUST passed 80,000 registered members....closing in on 100,000 - think we'll hit it in November....hopefully sooner. If you take how many unique visitors we have per MONTH, that is now close to 600,000...then it is impossible not to be true.
how many of those are active posters? MUCH MUCH less...so you are probably correct with your statistics, but you likely won't hear about it in this thread.
Next year I may be engaged WITHOUT a prenup. Eddie, did you get a prenup with your current wife?
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Eddie, did you get a prenup with your current wife?
No, but I figure it's only money. I know that sounds pretty cavalier, but I've been rich and I've been poor and whenever I've lost my fortune (such as it was), I always made it back in a couple years. Once you know how to make money, losing it is less important than the principle that some bitch robbed you.
I realize not everyone feels this way, and I'd never recommend anyone else getting married bareback (without a pre-nup) if you have something to protect. I just happen to trust my wife, and if I'm a fool for it I only have myself to blame.
Ed: I agree that its a
Ed: I agree that its a hogwash solution, because from what you say, there isnt any real impetus for the rich to do so. Ultimately I do think that the important thing is to change habits of people, though I think that a lot of problems could be dealt with by eliminating welfare, social security and all other government subsidies. Eliminating those would force the worst of the poor in todays ghettoes and backwaters to teach themselves to survive. Of course, that isn't a realistic solution either - its not politically possible.
Ultimately I do not think that the country can survive in the long term on its current course, and I dont think that the important things that the founders held to be self evident, which I can see as the basis for all the rights that make the US so great and our lives as good as they are, as being held as important.
Nouveau Richie
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup would be a one of the great threads on WSO. If anyone is knowledgable/has experience in the area please write a detailed post.
I guarrantee it will be one of the most searched threads. Personally, I'm trying to talk two fraternity brothers into the pre-nup thing but they are so caught up in the whole process that their logical male brains seem to be turned-off.
This thread sort of discusses it:
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sell-your-options-dearly-marriage
So like when you say fraternity brothers, are they recent graduates or still in college? Because a prenup only protects what you went into the marriage with and even that does not seem to hold much weight any more these days. In other words, if your brothers go get married today and start making the mucho bucks tomorrow, sorry, there is no protection. The 300 bucks they go in with will be covered, the built up 5 million won't be. And beyond the prenup, she'll want the kids to have two nannies, enough tuition money for the most expensive schools, vacation allowance, and of course, hopping on delta and going to Disney won't be enough, it will have to be private plane jaunts to St. Barts. Hopefully, she does not demand the high-end sports car, because you know its her next BF that will be driving it.
Quite frankly, I do not understand why guys rush into marriage nowadays, especially when those same guys are cheating within 12-18 months. I think there is unfortunately, incredible truth in what someone said above, "At least half of WSO members secretly realize the woman they're dating is too good for them and want to lock her down before she figures it out." Some awkward geek who could not pull women in college or high school is now making lots of money and attracting women, so before he wakes up, he locks it in. I understand the position. I've had dreams where I find lots of money, then I wake up. Quite maddening.
I was watching a Bloomberg show over the weekend and this one was about Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, made his money when the sold Paypal, which he co-founded. In the show he talked about about some times you make the wrong decisions in life with business/personal and that was a veiled attack on his ex wife (divorced in 2010) who made the divorce contentious over money. That also segued into how happy he was now because he had met another women. And of course, she was a model (I'd rather call her aspiring) who was not pretty in my opinion, at all. They showed them together and he was sitting next to her, the geek next to the "incredible hottie" looking clumsy. It broke my heart because I had seen a headline a couple months ago that said he was getting divorced!! The show was produced just a few months before this second divorce. Very sad. Also depressing, the show talked about how they met in a club and she had never heard of him and did not believe him about his cars and rockets and paypal until her father Googled him to see if they were real. In other words, this was how he was picking up women, by bragging/showing off. Didn't he know that that strategy, besides loser-like, is also dangerous to his wealth? How much is he losing this time around for less than 12 months of marriage. He lives in CA. Sad.
While I'm all for marriage
While I'm all for marriage and agree with your views re marriage and society, I am not sure if, quarreling parents of which one or both might be cheating and the kids know, is that much better for society either. Nowadays, kids don't complain about their parents being divorced, they complain about their parents fighting all the time. 50% of all marriages end in divorce in the US. I am not sure if that is setting a good example. Marriage is all well and good, but no one should be rushing into it. Personally, I think anyone getting before marriage before 30 in this day and age is crazy.
Le Capitalist - I 100% agree
Le Capitalist - I 100% agree that is sad. Which is what really makes things difficult for a guy like him with such incredible success financially.
For other people (like myself), it has nothing to do with feeling "she is too good for me", etc...it's more about having a family and wanting the kids to grow up in a relatively stable environment.
I'd be interested to see divorce rates for people over 30 that have college degrees and advanced degrees. I'd bet that they are significantly lower than the 50% stat that gets thrown around so much. (which i agree, is scary)
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I would be willing to take
I would be willing to take the under that 1 WSO member proposed last night.
My name is Nicky, but you can call me Dre.
Le Capitalist wrote: Nouveau
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup would be a one of the great threads on WSO. If anyone is knowledgable/has experience in the area please write a detailed post.
I guarrantee it will be one of the most searched threads. Personally, I'm trying to talk two fraternity brothers into the pre-nup thing but they are so caught up in the whole process that their logical male brains seem to be turned-off.
This thread sort of discusses it:
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sell-your-options-dearly-marriage
So like when you say fraternity brothers, are they recent graduates or still in college? Because a prenup only protects what you went into the marriage with and even that does not seem to hold much weight any more these days. In other words, if your brothers go get married today and start making the mucho bucks tomorrow, sorry, there is no protection. The 300 bucks they go in with will be covered, the built up 5 million won't be. And beyond the prenup, she'll want the kids to have two nannies, enough tuition money for the most expensive schools, vacation allowance, and of course, hopping on delta and going to Disney won't be enough, it will have to be private plane jaunts to St. Barts. Hopefully, she does not demand the high-end sports car, because you know its her next BF that will be driving it.
Quite frankly, I do not understand why guys rush into marriage nowadays, especially when those same guys are cheating within 12-18 months. I think there is unfortunately, incredible truth in what someone said above, "At least half of WSO members secretly realize the woman they're dating is too good for them and want to lock her down before she figures it out." Some awkward geek who could not pull women in college or high school is now making lots of money and attracting women, so before he wakes up, he locks it in. I understand the position. I've had dreams where I find lots of money, then I wake up. Quite maddening.
I was watching a Bloomberg show over the weekend and this one was about Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, made his money when the sold Paypal, which he co-founded. In the show he talked about about some times you make the wrong decisions in life with business/personal and that was a veiled attack on his ex wife (divorced in 2010) who made the divorce contentious over money. That also segued into how happy he was now because he had met another women. And of course, she was a model (I'd rather call her aspiring) who was not pretty in my opinion, at all. They showed them together and he was sitting next to her, the geek next to the "incredible hottie" looking clumsy. It broke my heart because I had seen a headline a couple months ago that said he was getting divorced!! The show was produced just a few months before this second divorce. Very sad. Also depressing, the show talked about how they met in a club and she had never heard of him and did not believe him about his cars and rockets and paypal until her father Googled him to see if they were real. In other words, this was how he was picking up women, by bragging/showing off. Didn't he know that that strategy, besides loser-like, is also dangerous to his wealth? How much is he losing this time around for less than 12 months of marriage. He lives in CA. Sad.
Nice post. Liked the anecdote about Elon Musk. He is a role model of mine - too bad he can't up his game. My fraternity brothers are both mid-twenties with a decent amount of assets each, so I think not convincing them to sign would make me a shitty friend.
RagnarDanneskjold wrote: Nice
Nice post. Liked the anecdote about Elon Musk. He is a role model of mine - too bad he can't up his game. My fraternity brothers are both mid-twenties with a decent amount of assets each, so I think not convincing them to sign would make me a shitty friend.
I'm not sure that I would say Elon doesn't have game. I think its VERY hard for a woman to deal with an ambitious man. Most women love the idea of being married to one without a single clue as to what it takes to support and love a man like that. Obviously he is driven and very focused - that is a man that needs an extremely unique woman. You ask 100 women if they can handle this and they will all reply "yes" but they simply can't do it. I'm speaking from the stuff that I've read about him as well as my own personal experience of being driven and married to someone that couldn't understand it.
some highlights from this
some highlights from this article: http://www.drheller.com/divorcemyths.html
"for college educated women who marry after the age of 25 and have established an independent source of income, the divorce rate is only 20%"
maybe another reason I'm more positive on marriage, I'm from MA: "divorce rate in Massachusetts is the lowest in the country. We have the highest percentage of college graduates"
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maybe another reason I'm more positive on marriage, I'm from MA: "divorce rate in Massachusetts is the lowest in the country. We have the highest percentage of college graduates"
What part? I grew up about half hour south of Boston.
"Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday."
-Eddie
Did anyone gets proposed
Did anyone gets proposed last night?
Power and Money do not change men; they only unmask them
WallStreetOasis.com
"for college educated women who marry after the age of 25 and have established an independent source of income, the divorce rate is only 20%"
This is the key point: these chicks have a clue what the real world is like. Also, men's brains literally are still developing until well into their 20's. You will CHANGE A LOT between 20 and 30, and money is just one part of the equation. Emotional intelligence/stability, verbal skills, testosterone levels (peak at 29, level off until 45), and the general personal development from life experience all take time.
As for millionaires marrying models 20 years younger than them? Those guys are idiots. What did they think would happen?
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I'd be interested to see divorce rates for people over 30 that have college degrees and advanced degrees. I'd bet that they are significantly lower than the 50% stat that gets thrown around so much. (which i agree, is scary)
Also keep in mind that 50% stat includes people who remarried and divorced. Once you've done it once, you're more likely to do it again which skews the numbers.
this topic is boring and
this topic is boring and completely played out on here
UFOinsider
"for college educated women who marry after the age of 25 and have established an independent source of income, the divorce rate is only 20%"
This is the key point: these chicks have a clue what the real world is like. Also, men's brains literally are still developing until well into their 20's. You will CHANGE A LOT between 20 and 30, and money is just one part of the equation. Emotional intelligence/stability, verbal skills, testosterone levels (peak at 29, level off until 45), and the general personal development from life experience all take time.
As for millionaires marrying models 20 years younger than them? Those guys are idiots. What did they think would happen?
IMO people dont really change drastically after 18 yrs of age
|| Everything to Gain - Nothing to Lose ||
But feeling good and enjoying life are prerequisites to success, not by products of it - Midas Mulligan Magoo