Is Volatility Back?

Yesterday was the worst day on the financial markets for about 5 weeks, coupled with an incredibly good day (for no apparent reason) the day before. March was a very boring month in terms of market movements and April has certainly gotten off to an interesting start.

When you look at some of the recent moves in the context of

  • North Korea being the angry kid on the aeroplane who's mother wont give him any sweets so he threatens to be sick on purpose;
  • Europe seemingly blowing up again in the form of reverse bank robbery
  • some extremely poor economic data from around the world and
  • a very high negative-to-positive guidance ratio from companies before earnings season

it does beg a few questions as to whether this rally and recent highs are sustainable and also as to whether we could be in for a turbulent couple of weeks. Personally I love volatility, far more interesting than the slow and relentless grind upwards.

What are your thoughts?

Comments (4)

Apr 3, 2013

Totally agree man for the exact reasons you point out. Seems as though there are a lot of potential events that was be devastating for the markets, albeit a low probability of actually occurring. It's difficult to justify market levels with all this on the table.

Apr 3, 2013

I like a relentless grind upwards. Here to make money, don't care about if its fun

Because when you're in a room full of smart people, smart suddenly doesn't matter--interesting is what matters.

Apr 4, 2013

The volatility can be fun if you are ahead of the game and making money off of it. It doesn't really seem like this rally is sustainable, but it looks good for now. Retail investors just don't know how scary the market is right now.

If nobody hates you, you're doing something wrong

Apr 4, 2013