It couldn't be Weekend Wars if we didn't take a week for a cease fire every now and then. It also couldn't be Weekend Wars if we didn't address actual tangible conflict every now and then. The recent ruckus in Egypt and the forthcoming Lucky #13 episode of NSFW motivate my desire to hear your thoughts on the subject at hand.
This week I want us to get macro. I want to hear your short, medium and long range views on the MENA region. The Middle East and North Africa have been a focus of the market oriented world for over half a century...yet we don't really talk about the region all that much.
Ever since the "7 Sisters" penetrated this market, financier's lives have never been the same. Along the same train of thought, I thoroughly recommend this article about the new seven sisters of the oil world for those who desire further info on the subject.
The Meat of the Matter
Though much talk centers around the emerging markets of Southeast Asia and the overall influence of the BRIC countries, our day-to-day reality is very much tied to MENA.
This is why I am curious as to your opinions on Iraq and Egypt, as microcosmic samples of where this region will or will not go.
We have had about five years since the brunt of the Iraqi conflict died down. There's certainly more than enough evidence to say that globalist fiscal influence in this part of the world will follow (or attempt to follow) the "Iraqi Model".
How do you guys see Egypt playing out in this regard? Is it doomed to an Iraq-like standstill? Will reformation sweep and bring change of business as usual standards?
Do you see MENA as a viable investment opportunity?
Do you see better days ahead for the region?
Or are you a pessimist like me and see peril instead of opportunity around each corner?
I'd like to get this moving as an Iraq/Egypt comparison but if you see something of note in any of the neighboring states, please feel free to point it out.
For my money, I think that the adventuresome investor will have the opportunity for huge returns in this area over the coming decade. That having been said, the high risk/high reward model tells us that many will lose their shirts.
Let's get creative here guys...human catapult suggestions are welcome!
How would you proceed in this area if you had let's say...a low eight-figure discretionary chunk at your disposal?
Would you stay away all-together?
Why or why not?