PPI — Like the final drum before battle, we’ve officially received the last inflation reading before JPow and the FOMC head into rate decision day. Spoiler alert: it was not good.
Shoutout to Barron’s for the super insightful headline following the release of February’s PPI report, saying, “Inflation is a Problem.” Thanks. We had no idea.
But still, despite being a little too on-the-nose, the headline is nevertheless as accurate as they come. Producer prices increased 0.8% month-over-month in February, just under economists’ expectations of 0.9% (not bad, guys) and down from the 1.2% jump in January. That translates to an annual jump of 10.0%, a.k.a. the fastest year-over-year jump ever.
As if it even needs to be said, most of that jump comes from the ridiculous upswing in energy prices, driving an 8.2% annual increase. Stripping food and energy from the reading, we get the so-called “Core” PPI. For the month, core producer prices increased only 0.2% and a much more mild but still kinda wild 6.6% annual jump.
So that doesn’t sound great, yet markets didn’t immediately freak the hell out. Why? Well, recall that the market doesn’t necessarily move on absolute data, but rather, how it fits in with expectations. As sad as it sounds, pretty much everyone was ready for record producer prices.
But the most prominent reason, we can assume, is that the record increase in producer prices fits with the Fed’s expectations as well. JPow and the FOMC gang met yesterday and will continue their meeting today, ultimately deciding whether or not to move the Federal Funds Rate and, just as importantly, by how much.
All signs point to a 25bps increase, taking rates from 0 to just basically 0. Prior to the start of Putin’s war, markets were pricing in a high probability for a 50bps jump, but given the added uncertainty, experts say JPow knows he has to be a bit more chill.
But of course, you never know. Expect a rate update by mid-afternoon as the FOMC meeting is scheduled to run until 2 pm. JPow will give one of his classic, emotionless press conferences following the decision, with their plans for monetary policy going forward taking the spotlight. You better believe we’ll be tuned in, so see you there.
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