Does anyone genuinely believe in cryptocurrencies?
I'm not writing this to troll or call you to check the big brain on me; I just want to know what everyone thinks
I get it. A remarkable number of (struggling?) people made it through investing in bitcoin, I did that too. But shouldn't this exactly be a counterargument on its own? It's almost Impossible to find any correlation between inflation and crypto. It hasn't been functioning as an intrinsically valuable investment, let alone currency. and its value is mainly derived from ridiculous pumping stunts (influencers, elon musk sharing a meme, or cathie wood hosting a meeting); this trivial value has typically been lost through real world events (govt proposing cap gains tax, companies discontinuing cryptos as means of payment).
I'm not a huge quantitative person, but I read that paper by nassim taleb, and I'm sort of convinced at this point that bitcoin is futile. Of course this would've been a different case if bitcoin had made any progress in containing inflation panic or being accepted as a currency, but as I mentioned, this has not been the case (at least the way I see it. curious what yall think though).
Does anyone have a solid critique of that paper? Anyone care to correct me here?
As an ecosystem, blockchain and crypto's generally are here to stay - but there's absolutely going to be a washout. I look at these stable coins and they are nothing more than an ultra short bond fund promising stable NAV... which let me tell you how that's going to work in a market disruption.
Irrespective of that - I think we tend to look at these the wrong way, ascribing these high minded ideals of inflation hedge or currency - they are neither, or maybe both. Who knows. I don't view them as futile, that's how progress works - you try some stuff out, maybe it fails and maybe it doesn't. But you don't get to the next step without trying it.
Take them for what they are - mostly speculative assets, some will work and others will be complete frauds. Defi I think has a chance to make some strides in teh payments sphere, Ethereum probably an interesting block chain style tech. I'm sure others better versed in the space can chime in. I also like NFT's and some of the digital IP rights that are at least interesting to me.
ETH is literally money. Gas fees will continue to decrease as EIP is built out and miners continue to mine. Bitcoin is closer to the S&P version of crypto. Chainlink will expand with the adoption of smart contracts. Tbh it doesn't sound like you've done a deep enough dive. If anything, crypto will displace traditional finance. First M&A deal done through crypto without bankers just recently happened. Why would I go to a bank for XYZ loan and pay so many nonsense fees when I could borrow from a yield pool through a smart contract collateralized by another digital asset (ex. NFT)? The main frame isn't complete yet but this is the easiest opportunity to make generational money in history. It is an incredibly effective way to avoid taxation assuming you buy/sell OTC or HODL forever. Crypto is a main driver behind the "sovereign individual" mindset.
Also, Goldman, Point72, Millenium, Wells, and plenty of others are getting into the space.
Are you BTB
One of his cult followers. Honestly think he is the smartest man alive and would trust his macro views over anyone else in this world
Who's BTB?
What would you recommend for someone clueless getting into the space to buy? Just standard BTC and ETH set it and forget it like an Index fund? Or look at some of those TokenSets that are already set up like crypto index funds? Looking for something passive obviously that I don't have to monitor which to an outsider seems difficult as crypto has so many traders that play both sides. Also when you refer to generational money would you mean those opportunities are still available in standard ETH or BTC or more so the newer upcoming projects/coins?
I have almost my entire net worth in BTC/ETH/LINK aside from 401/Roth, and then a couple opportunistic ones but I wouldn't recommend those unless you're willing to lose all your money (3% allocation of my portfolio)
The biggest concerns are energy consumption and intrinsic value. Bitcoin alone, if it were a country, would be in the top 30 for energy usage. This excludes all other crypto as well.
On intrinsic value, when currencies were backed by gold/silver, at least the backings had some usage (processors/motherboards etc.). Fiat without physical backing or even labor hour backing for that matter, is no different in my opinion than crypto besides an appearance of "government backing".
Excluding these, blockchain and decentralized ledger systems have incredible runway. Expect this to translate into more transactional transparency and less privacy.
Then again I'm just a dumb analyst. This is not financial advice.
Talked with buddies about this but I think we're kind seeing a pre-2008 cycle right now. 2017-2018 was 2000 because everything was "going to the moon" but none of them actually did much. Whereas now there are protocols that generate serious fees (not gonna give alpha DYOR) but are still trading at high multiples (MC/TVL or fees). Last I checked the TVL of DeFi was ~200bn so there's definitely room to grow. Just a matter of when the music will stop this cycle. But yes, I believe in crypto... do some digging its much bigger than BTC/ETH/DOGE.
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