10 Years from now this bear market will likely be viewed as a speed bump. Change my mind
We live in a world where we could look back and previous crashes and say that they were realistically speedbumps. 2008 although massive, can be viewed as a speedbump, Dotcom was also large, but also a speedbump. No crash can permanently impair the US Economy / stock market (closest was Great Depression, however, that will likely never happen again.)
I completely understand the bearish perspective and I understand the bullish perspective, but in the end the bulls always win....sounds cringy but it's true. Even though I'm short-term bearish and don't see this bear market going past 2023.
That being said, it's laughable when we see guys trying to compare this to 2008........this is nothing like it. 2008 was sheer panic and despair. The Financial System was on the brink of collapse, global governments had to intervene to prevent a global meltdown. The FED is simply hawkish in this episode due to inflation.....massive difference. This is more similar to the dotcom than 2008, but it still has large differences.
I'm looking forward to your perspectives, but 5yrs - 10yrs out, This would be a great buying opportunity.
Long the US Economy, Long US Stock Market.
Ww3?
This sounds like the "eureka" moment of a freshman who sees that the S&P 500 chart always ends up higher than before, but I'll bite.
1) Unless you're into academia debating the merits of capitalism, then I don't see the point in bringing up this discussion because it's common sense that stock markets are bullish on the long-term (otherwise they'll cease to exist because having consistently lower numbers than previous numbers - on highs and lows - will distance investors and companies to more attractive investments leaving the stock market without participants).
2) In terms of bearish people, I can only think about 2: (1) They are complete beginners and have no clue about what's going on (their opinion doesn't matter, so you shouldn't care); and (2) Experienced investors that won't buy now/are short because they're waiting for the moment when markets hit their lowest/profit from its lowest (short-term pessimists, but long-term optimists i.e. know that stock market will go up long-term). So it seems that everybody - besides the 1 - agrees that markets are long-term bullish.
The only 3 things that are worth considering if you're concerned about how the aggregate stock market will perform in the next 5-10 years are:
1) Risk probability depending on how much time you hold
2) Timing your investments (e.g. not buying in 1998 and selling in 2008)
3) Your portfolio's expected performance vs. the expected performance of the aggregate stock market (i.e. alpha)
Don't you know only bearish and doomsday opinions get any engagement these days? All these investors (even retail) are sitting in cash or are short (no I don't give a shit about data that includes passive fund inflows or BS NAIIM exposure). Everyone think they're smarter than they really are because they read news headlines or react to monthly data. The most hilarious thing is all the arm chair experts coming out talking about "re-inflation" because they don't understand seasonal adjustments in January.
The rally coming out of this will be the steepest melt up in history.
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