Bear Market 2020 COVID19 Edition - Thoughts?
How're you guys positioning your portfolio? How long/bad do you guys think the downturn will be/last for?
While I'm cautious about the market right now, I think this a really good time to pick up some high quality names at discounts. Specifically looking at $FB, $DIS, $BRK.B, $V / $MA. Also may be a good opportunity to pick up some growthy/contested names at much fairer prices...thinking $ROKU $TWTR $SNAP $SDC $CVNA $CSPR
The bank stocks are an absolute steal right now. Some are trading at a P/B of 0.5.... unheard of in the past 5 years and also they have great dividend yields so you can collect while you wait for the capital appreciation
You have any specific bank stocks you're interested in? Blue chips like $BAC and $JPM?
Do you realize bank earnings are directly correlated to interest rates? Assuming you know where interest rates currently sit, and where theyre headed (zero).
definitely JPM, Citigroup, BAML (BAC), and some of the regional players like Citizens Financial (CFG) are all steals rn
Unfortunately I mostly own banks. Even at market highs 10 p/e. Now down half. I was even bearish at highs but figured they return about 1% to me a month and didn't want to pay taxes.
Market has hated banks for a while yet their earnings continue to grow. Their exposure to rates isn't that big (it's mostly a spread game).
I do think the big banks > smaller banks. Economies of scale and ability to provide corporate services that small banks can't.
Fully exited Equities Q3 2019 as valuations were too high in my opinion, bit of luck on my side but will get back into them slowly by the end of the month. Looking at buying blue-chips or simply indexing everything and enjoying the ride back up.
I don't really believe in market timing, especially as the current market downturn is triggered by a virus, which is the first time to experience in my lifetime and even in the lifetime of big guys like Warren Buffet or Dalio. Monetary policies are not triggering the beautiful deleveraging...and most importantly market bounce back will be influenced by Central Banks + Government Policies to control the virus + market reactions to the virus (which is highly political and difficult to predict...)
Fed cuts, QE, oil drop, auto and airlines drop, long CDS on cruise ships, etc. were predictable ... but I am not a macro guy...I don't like to take bets on things that I don't feel I have a big edge on, I don't like to make any one bet really big, and I'd rather seek how to neutralize myself against big unknowns than how to bet on them. Therefore, I would diversify my portfolio as much as possible....rather continue betting big on the tail risk...
What I am doing is investing in advanced derivatives options, some quality and strongly undervalued stocks based on bottom-up fundamental analysis, Gold ETF and alternative investment including hedge funds. For ETFs I am using Vanguard (https://investor.vanguard.com/), for alternative funds & portfolios Daedalus (https://daedalus.investments) and for shares & options Robinhood (https://robinhood.com).
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