Differentiation in L/S stock ideas - meaning and importance
Here is my naive understanding:
Meaning
The market usually values securities based on their imp "expected" financial numbers (Rev, EBIT, EPS, FCF). Thus if you can predict the numbers to be better or worse, you are differentiated.
The realisticness of your differentiation is predicated on the depth of research that goes into figuring out what those numbers are.
Also, there are levels of differentiation. There is a number that the market thinks is the most likely outcome (can be estimated through a reverse-DCF/ mgmt guidance). How far off you are from that number determines the amount of money you make (assuming you are right).
Thus can some sell-side reports be considered "differentiated" just because for whatever reason they have a different opinion on the numbers? If not why?
Also what exactly is "consensus"? Are those the numbers you come up with by conducting a reverse DCF or is it the average of the sell side numbers?
Importance
The purpose of a hedge fund or any fund is to generate "alpha" to justify the fees charged. Alpha is by definition only generated when you beat the market (return).
So having a differentiated view allows you to capture opportunities where there is the highest delta between consensus numbers and reality.
With this in mind, does it mean that by not having a differentiated view, but by picking stocks that have long-term positive biases, I would still manage to get around or at times more than the market return over the long run? Obviously, it won't be as good as the gross return for a HF but it can come closer to the post-fees number.
Does going down this rabbit hole of differentiation hold any other importance apart from maximizing return? If yes what is it?
I realize that HFs are not just about return but about risk-adjusted return but let's keep the risk-adjustment benefit of this instrument aside for simplification purposes.
What nuance am I missing here?
Lastly, is this obsession about the number characteristic of pods and not that prevalent for SMs?
Sorry for the barrage of questions. Answers/opinions on any of the questions would be appreciated. Thanks!
Please don’t ever use a reverse dcf.
why?
Piece of advice: if you are seeking advice from people, ask 1 targeted question. If you ask 10 convoluted questions across 7 paragraphs, you lose people.
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