https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/david-einh…
I found it interesting to revisit prior peaks in various disciplines (e.g. value investing in the early 2010s, mortgages in mid-2000s) to see how they were perceived. This forum was all over Einhorn/value investing back then similar to how it is all over the top growth investors today. In 5 years, do you think all these growth investors will continue to be perceived as the smartest money or will there be some mean reversion and we will be saying einhorn is back (ackman has somewhat made a return this year)?
Hi wso_user, whoops, looks like nobody chimed in here.... maybe one of these discussions below is relevant:
More suggestions...
I hope those threads give you a bit more insight.
No one thinks that growth investors are the smartest money managers, they just happen to be investing into an asset class that has seen unprecedented growth.
Until the capital growth engine gets shut off, I imagine value will still be a laggard. Doesn’t mean the people here aren’t smart (I assure you they are), they just either have to start working outside their mandate or stay on the sidelines.
I hate this idea that investors are somehow lucky to be investing in growth or in tech. They're just fucking correct, growth and tech have been the winners of the past decade and if you didn't invest there you were wrong. "Oh Tiger Cubs or whoever else are just tech beta followers, they're not market neutral." And? They correctly rode a bull market where shorting has a low return on brain damage. If investing in growth/tech is so easy, do it. There's no honor in losing money.
To OP, yeah value will likely come back eventually. Damodaran made a post today regarding the fact that we're just in a growth-biased part of the financial cycle. It's to the credit of guys like Ackman that they have been able to navigate a variety of different market conditions and make great returns, and to the detriment of guys like Klarman who just whined about the Fed again in his annual letter.
Appreciate the post, but that’s not how asset management works. 99% of investors are allocated capital to perform a very specific function that they have convinced LPs they’re the best at. To the 1% of funds that either have 1. A go anywhere, do anything mandate or 2. permanent capital and can do whatever they want, you’re right - whoever has the highest returns wins. But Baupost’s 5% return in 2020 doesn’t make them any less intelligent or skillful than a growth investor. They’re still one of the best, if not the best, in their mandate.
I know a lot of people only found out about Ackman last spring with his short trade. It was an awesome trade. But dude, to pose him as an example of the type of manager that can adapt to any market environment.. i don't think you know what you're talking about. Look at the decade prior and it's a completely different story.
People follow trends, who would've thought. I wonder if the WSB memes are true about Melvin being short on GME, since they're so lauded in the fundamental equity space lately. Certainly would be embarrassing.
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