Should I renege my buyside offer and stay in IB?

Currently an A2A at a EB (1st year Associate). Signed an offer ($2bn shop, event-driven), had a conversation with my MD today and he offered me early promote to VP in December 2023 and potentially some sort of retention bonus (to be negotiated) Am I crazy for having second thoughts? I am pretty well liked in my group and have good relationships with the seniors so will likely be top bucket and have guaranteed pathway to become a SVP / Director at least. Now I feel like I am giving up too much and leaving for the unknown. I know I can top bucket Associate, VP, whatever but not sure I can be a top bucket hedge fund analyst. 

 

if this was PE this would be a dif story, but honestly bro this seems like a good gig; also at $2bn and the direction with which the HF game is heading? I'd probably stay. The only way to make this a done deal decision would be if the guy would give it to you in writing that he's going to give you the early promote. Is the HF shop SM or pod?

 

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