Which offer should I take?

Considering a couple of offers atm in L/S for NY - I'm 1.5 years in as an analyst in IB

1) 10-20bln, recent track record OK, senior guys seemed pretty checked out, big team with lots of smart people, great name - probably would have to leave at some point to ever get a senior role as I expect them to shut down at some point in the next couple of years based on what I heard.

2) Small fund $100mln, very recent launch (6 months), phenomenal track record over 7 years as PM (saw the audited stuff from their prime broker and literally 1500 points of alpha, 3+ sharpe ratio with position sizing as if they were managing 2.5bln so no microcap stuff - it's not really a generic L/S strat either, they have a clearly articulated edge). I would be first analyst there.

3) I have some other offers but I am really considering the first two.

Numbers are a little fudged for anonymity but closely representative. What would you do/ any thoughts?

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