End of the low-rate era: Cash?
Inspired by the latest Marks memo: Sea change. We know that the Fed is determined to stamp out inflation and regain its credibility. Will probably hike rates for another 50 bps in 2023, then hold it out at the neutral rate of interest. That puts rates just south of the 5% ballpark.
Anyone see a solid thesis for just holding deposits? Why would you bother doing anything if you have a solid strong ~ 5% return.
Was listening to the JPM Centre for Investment Excellence podcast where they outlined their possible strategy of shifting into active management for equities since it will be a rocky year for equity ETFs next year with high rates. They're JPM so naturally it's a good strategy for them - I wonder if people agree if next year would be a good time for just holding deposits for retail investors
Because if inflation is 7-10% (or higher) then your 5% doesn't look so great...Great on a nominal basis, meh on a real basis. Just look back at the last 10 years where inflation was less than 2%. You earned 0% on your bank accounts. Spread still exists today just the nominal returns are better. The second the Fed cuts rates the 5% will be gonzo.
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