Fusionsgespräche are here

MARKETS

  • U.S. markets: Fresh off new highs for the year, stocks hope to keep up the momentum as Q1 nears the finish line.
  • Currency markets: They’ve been unusually "quiet," according to the WSJ. That’s worrying some traders, who fear that future moves could usher in wild volatility.

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HEALTH TECH

Apple Listens to Your Heart

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While it’s annoying when your Apple Watch passive aggressively tells you to get off the couch, maybe it knows something you don’t. After all, a broad new study from Apple and Stanford University found that the pulse sensors in Apple Watches can help detect heart rhythm disorders.
How it went

Stanford researchers launched the “Apple Heart Study” in 2017 with funding from...Apple. They eventually enrolled close to 420,000 American adults who owned an Apple Watch and an iPhone.

  • Worth noting: Participants used older Apple Watch versions, not the latest one unveiled in September, which has a built-in electrocardiogram (ECG) on top of the standard pulse

Researchers used Apple Watch’s optical pulse sensor to identify irregular heartbeats (aka atrial fibrillation aka AFib), which can increase the risk of stroke. FYI, up to 6 million Americans are estimated to have AFib, but many don’t experience symptoms.

The results

About 0.5% of patients got notifications from their watches indicating there could be a problem...and that decently low percentage “showed that the technology wasn’t inundating people with worrisome alerts,” Bloomberg writes.

But of the roughly 450 participants who had irregular rhythm (not of the Elaine Benes variety) and followed instructions using electrocardiogram patches, doctors confirmed AFib in about 34% of patients. The other two-thirds? No confirmed AFib at that time, which might raise concerns about the watch’s accuracy.

The study was a mixed

While some users could utilize the Apple Watch to detect asymptomatic health issues, it’s important to focus on the false alarms.

  • “This also has the possibility to lead a lot of patients potentially to being treated unnecessarily or prematurely,” said Prof. Jeanne Poole

Zoom out: Apple is working overtime to improve your health with wearable tech. But this is far more complicated than just tracking your steps—spotting undiagnosed health issues is tough business with little room for error.

M&A

For Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, It’s Come to This

Merger talks have officially begun, Germany’s two largest listed lenders confirmed Sunday, although there’s no certainty a deal will happen.

They say misery loves company...but it loves these companies best. Both lenders watched their market values decline more than 90% from their peaks as they struggled in a crowded banking sector and slowing economy.

And while the deal’s not as divisive as Brexit, there are definitely disagreements over whether this is a good idea.

  • The case for the merger: Wall Street has been squeezing Germany’s banks for years now—only by joining forces can DB and Commerzbank compete on the world stage. (The combined bank would be Europe’s fourth-largest lender by assets.)
  • The case against: DB and Commerzbank can't seem to get their own houses in order. Tacking on all the nitty gritty of M&A, from combining tech to job cuts, might only compound the restructuring required.

+ How it’s playing in Germany, where they have a much more fun word for “merger talks.”
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WASTE

Reduce, Reuse, Renege

WASTE
Reduce, Reuse, Renege
If it were easy, everyone would do it. Same goes for if it were cheap. But recycling is neither of those things, which has prompted cities—and businesses—around the U.S. to rethink their waste strategies, reports the NYT and the WSJ this weekend.

It started with China. The country had been a major buyer of recyclable material collected in the U.S. up until January 2018, when officials raised standards on what they’d take from U.S. garbage piles.

Then came the companies. With fewer buyers, recycling firms began charging cities higher prices—in some cases 4x what they charged last year.

  • And one city’s trash is Waste Management’s treasure. The company reported strong operating profits last year thanks to the changing tide.
  • There’s also Arconic, which has pivoted to high-margin flat-rolled aluminum for auto and industrial parts (meaning more used Coke cans piling up in scrapyards).

Bottom line: The global scrap market is in turmoil. Cities and towns will have to decide: cut municipal services, raise taxes, or forget recycling altogether.

SPORTS

Stats That Make You Go...'Wow'

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If you’re thinking to yourself, “This is the year I’ll pick the perfect March Madness bracket”...stop that nonsense right now. You have a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance of picking every game in the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament correctly.

  • Give us some context, Bloomberg: “With just 7 quintillion grains of sand on Earth, you’ve got a better shot at finding the one painted Carolina Blue than picking the winner of all 63 tournament games typically included on a bracket.”

To be sure, if you aren't picking games randomly, then you do have a better shot (a 1 seed vs. a 16 seed should be four guaranteed wins, cough UVA cough). So when a Duke math professor adjusted probability based on seeding, he calculated the odds of a perfect bracket at a completely reasonable 1 in 2.4 trillion.

+ Get some advice on how to pick your bracket from a bigtime investor here.

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

We hope that a few much-needed celebrations can bring us together following a tragic week.

Monday: Housing market index; earnings (Tilray, Overstock.com)

Tuesday: Factory orders; earnings (FedEx, Tencent, DSW)

Wednesday: Fed announcement on interest rates; earnings (Micron, General Mills); first day of spring; Holi; Purim (in the evening); National Cherry Blossom Festival begins in D.C.

Thursday: Jobless claims; European Council meeting begins; earnings (Nike, Darden Restaurants, ConAgra Brands)

Friday: Existing home sales; earnings (Tiffany & Co.)

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • The black box from the Ethiopian Airlines flight that crashed a week ago showed “clear similarities” between that crash and the Lion Air Boeing 737 Max 8 that went down in October 2018.
  • President Trump strongly suggested GM reopen its Lordstown, Ohio, plant in a weekend tweet ten days after the plant made its last Chevy Cruze.
  • Median compensation for 132 S&P 500 CEOs reached more than $1 million a month in 2018, a WSJ analysis shows.
  • Lyft is reportedly facing calls from an investor group to abandon proposals for a dual-class share structure, per the FT.
  • Constellation Brands (the maker of Corona) is said to be closing in on a deal to sell some of its low-end wine brands to E. & J. Gallo Winery, reports CNBC.

BREAKROOM

Greater Than, Less Than, or Equal to

  1. The number of champagne bottles sold in 2018 // The number of champagne bottles sold in
  2. The number of EU member states currently // The number of days in a non-leap year February
  3. Blue Apron’s market cap // Twitter’s Q4 2018 revenue
  4. Average tech job salary in Austin, TX // Average tech job salary in Atlanta, GA

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Breakroom Answers


Greater Than, Less Than, or Equal to
1) Less than 2) Equal to 3) Less than 4) Greater than

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