Heimlich time

MARKETS

• Brexit: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has now struck out three times in getting her Brexit deal approved by Parliament, twice swinging and once looking. Remember, yesterday had been the deadline for Brexit until it was delayed.
• The Fed: Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Axios he wants the central bank to “immediately” cut interest rates by half a percentage point.

MARKETS

Most Likely to Succeed: Quarter One

Now that the first quarter is essentially over, it’s our solemn duty as newsletter writers to take a good 286-word look at where we’ve been in the last 88 days. And this one is for sure going on your Hudl highlight reel.

The stock market went

The first quarter was the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998. 1998. The index climbed 13.1% over the last three months.

• The Dow snagged its best Q1 since 2013. And the Nasdaq’s was its best since 2012.

There could be more to come. The S&P has risen by more than 10% in Q1 only four times since 1990, per analytics firm Kensho. In those years, the broad index averaged a gain of 10.3% in quarters 2-4.

And oil had a good Q1, too

Not to be outdone by equities, oil notched its biggest quarterly gain since 2009. WTI crude futures hammered out a 32% gain in the first three months of the year.

The reason: OPEC continued to enforce supply cuts. And U.S. sanctions against major exporters Iran and Venezuela were like dousing the fire with...gasoline.

But remember—it’s all about perspective. Like those in the equities market, oil’s Q1 gains were made all the more dramatic by the fourth-quarter-that-shall-not-be-named.

We’re handing out our quarterly superlatives

• Most Popular: Jerome Powell, who proved the Fed chair you are in 2018 doesn’t define the rest of your life. He didn’t raise interest rates in January or in March, earning applause from the business community (but some are concerned what that means for the slowing economy).
• Biggest Tease: Amazon. Because January lasted for 47.5 years, you might have forgotten that on Valentine’s Day, Amazon pulled out of plans to build its HQ2 in New York City.
• Biggest Comeback: the U.S. government. We really thought the federal government’s longest shutdown ever wouldn’t end. Eventually, it did, 35 days later, on January 25.

RIDE-HAILING

Lyft Is Finally Public

And if you weren’t glued to your Robinhood account yesterday, you should know day one went pretty well.

Lyft stock (trading under the Nasdaq ticker LYFT) jumped as much as 23% yesterday, ending the day with a market value of about $22.4 billion.

• That’s about Elon Musk’s net worth, but not quite the $30 billion Snap was valued at in its 2017 IPO. Snap’s now worth around $14.3 billion.

Beginner’s luck, you say? Maybe. But maybe not—over the last year, IPOs that rose in their first session are now trading 27% above their initial prices on average. Offerings that fell on day one are up just 0.3% from their IPO prices.

TECH

Huawei Is Huge

We haven’t reviewed the literature on negative reinforcement, but we do know it works great for Huawei. The Chinese tech giant endured a barrage of criticism from Western governments over national security concerns...but still turned a record-setting year.

We don’t just throw around the word “giant”: Huawei posted net profit in 2018 that rose 25% to about $8.8 billion, while annual sales topped $100 billion. Put that in perspective, via the NYT:

• In terms of yearly revenue, Huawei’s on par with Microsoft and Google.
• And revenue is also nearly as large as China’s three other internet powerhouses—Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu—combined.

What Huawei does well: It’s already the world’s largest manufacturer of telecom equipment, but it’s grown its smartphone business (up 35% last year) into a true contender on the global stage.

What it needs to work on: convincing the U.S. and other concerned governments it’s not a vessel for Chinese government spying. And maybe working on some more creative disses? “The U.S. government has a loser’s attitude,” rotating chairman Guo Ping said.

TRANSPORTATION

That’s One Expensive Intersection

New York City could be the first in the U.S. to introduce “congestion pricing,” a new rule that would charge motorists to enter the busiest streets of Manhattan. Our office is located in the proposed zone—extending from 60th Street in Midtown to the southern tip of the island—but if you come visit us, we’ll reimburse you and maybe even give you a mug.

The measure is part of budget negotiations being hashed out in the much-less-crowded state capital, Albany. The budget’s due April 1.

Zoom out: Congestion pricing is Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s way of killing two birds with one stone—or fixing the city’s subway system with one new tolling policy. The estimated $1 billion in funds raised annually from the tolls would go to secure bonds for improvements to mass transit.

But while congestion pricing could be the Heimlich maneuver these choking streets need, there are still plenty of issues to be worked out this weekend, especially over who should get exemptions.

FOOD MANUFACTURIN

So That's How It's Made

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Apple (+0.65%) canceled its AirPower charger, saying it "will not achieve our high standards."
• TUI Group, Europe’s largest travel operator, said the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max would reduce its 2019 earnings by $225 million.
• Mondelez (+1.16%) is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Campbell Soup’s “cookie assets.” This close to beach season?
• Daimler (+1.78%) is taking a majority ownership stake in driverless car startup Torc Robotics.
• Starboard (the activist hedge fund) is giving up its campaign to persuade investors to vote down Bristol-Myers Squibb’s $74 billion takeover of Celgene.

BREAKROOM

Saturday Headlines
You might think that we made up all of these news stories, but...nope, just one. Can you figure it out?

• “Study shows 55% of tech startup founders have read fewer than three
• “Inmates in Finland are training AI as part of prison labor”
• “Berlin police break up mass brawl organised by two rival YouTube stars”
• “Aussie engineer accuses 'serial farter' supervisor of bullying, seeks $1.8m redress”

Breakroom Answers