In Liz We Truss | The Daily Peel | 9/7/22

Market Snapshot

Stocks attempted a rebound after the 3-day weekend but slipped into negative territory by the end of the session.

With a new British prime minister and an emergency EU energy meeting on Friday, investors are keyed in on Europe this week.

At the close, the Dow lost 0.55%, the Nasdaq was down 0.74%, and the S&P declined 0.41%. WTI Crude was mostly unchanged.

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Let’s get into it.


Banana Bits

  • Certain skills are foundational for finance professionals
  • No gas will flow through Nord Stream 1 until Putin says so, after a “leak” was detected. Incredible coincidence.
  • VW is readying mammoth IPO for its consistently-profitable Porsche division
  • The labor market remains tight as a drum, and job hoppers are continuing to bank big raises
  • Big shakeup in the Big 4—EY is planning to split itself in two

Banana Brain Teaser

Yesterday — A man is caught on the king's property. He is brought before the king to be punished. The king says, "You must give me a statement. If it is true, you will be killed by lions. If it is false, you will be killed by trampling of wild buffalo. If I can’t figure it out, I’ll have to let you go.” Sure enough, the man was released. What was the man's statement?

"I will be killed by trampling of wild buffalo.”

Today — It’s 100 bananas off our Foundations Package for the first 15 correct respondents. LFG!

What can you hold in your left hand and not in your right?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] with the subject line Banana Brain Teaser or simply click here to reply!


Macro Monkey Says

The British Are Succumbing — “I will deliver.” That phrase was all over Liz Truss’s victory speech to the British Conservative Party. Britons are hoping she keeps her word, as they have no shortage of issues that she’ll be taking on.

A few of the whoppers include:

  • An impending energy crisis
  • Double-digit inflation and a looming recession
  • Charting a way forward for Britain and the EU post-Brexit

Google “Liz Truss,” and it becomes immediately evident what she’ll be dealing with—just about every headline includes ‘massive challenges,’ ‘nightmare scenario,’ and the like.

The youngest-ever female cabinet minister has plenty of messes to clean up, but it starts with energy. Many of Britain’s economic woes stem from its reliance on foreign energy producers.

Germany is dealing with surging energy prices American-style by handing out billions in stimmies to its people. Although she hasn’t revealed the specifics of her plan, Truss has promised to act swiftly on the energy issue, and many expect her to throw money at the problem like the Germans.

While it could lessen the pain for this winter, energy stimmies are a bandaid on a bullet hole. At the end of the day, without more domestic energy production, foreign actors will continue to have the likes of Britain and Germany at their mercy.

On the economic side of things, Truss has a Thatcher-esque focus on growth rather than redistribution and is planning several tax cuts.

In her words, “To look at everything through the lens of redistribution I believe is wrong. Because what I’m about is growing the economy - and growing the economy benefits everybody.”

Tax cuts plus subsidized energy could be a sign of big deficits, but Truss is betting that higher growth will cure all ills. We’ll see how it plays out.


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What's Ripe

Rivian ($RIVN) — When it comes to starting a car company, priority numero uno is amassing a sh*t ton of cash.

Rivian has that part figured out—it’s sitting on about $15bn. And, like Tesla, it has a product that consumers love so much that they’re willing to wait months for its delivery.

Its recent decision to cut its most affordable models angered customers but pleased investors. A focus on higher-end vehicles should hasten the journey to profitability.

Its cash pile gives it a leg up on competitors like Lordstown Motors and Lucid, but the big boys like Ford are also getting into the EV game.

For now, investors are bullish on Rivian being able to carve out a slice of the EV market.

$RIVN finished the day up 3.59%.

Wingstop ($WING) — Football is back, which means an absurd amount of wing consumption in the next few months. But that’s not why $WING has been on an absolute tear this summer.

Its entrance into the chicken sandwich wars marks a big growth opportunity for the chain. American fast food tastes have broadly shifted from beef to chicken, and Wingstop is looking to follow the likes of Chick-fil-A and Popeyes to capitalize on the trend.

It also recently added UberEats to complement DoorDash as a delivery partner, which should help it reach a wider customer base.

$WING closed the day up 9.14%.


What's Rotten

Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) — Awful news for $BBBY came out this weekend when CFO Gustavo Arnal jumped out of his NYC apartment building in an apparent suicide.

Going to hold off on falling puns in light of the tragedy, but $BBBY tanked on the news. It now faces financial hell without its top finance chief.

Layoffs, store closures, and new stock issuance are on the docket to keep this retailer alive. It’ll take nothing short of a miracle to bring this thing back to its ATH.

$BBBY closed the session down 18.42%.

Gamestop ($GME) — RIP HODLers.

$GME got caught up in the meme stock bloodbath on Tuesday. Although, if you’re still not used to this thing going up and down 10%+ in a day, probably better to buy utilities or something.

Gamestop is gearing up for its Q2 earnings release today, and investors are mostly pessimistic. The consensus expectation is a loss of 38 cents per share.

Ryan Cohen, the apes are counting on you. Feed us our tendies.

$GME finished the day down 8.32%.


Thought Banana

Big Macs vs Big Labor — There’s been no shortage of takes on California’s fast food wages bill. You already know what each side thinks—pro-union folks are thrilled, while free market evangelists are livid.

The new law signed by Gov. Newsom will raise the minimum wage for fast food workers to $22, but only for chains that have over 100 locations across the country.

Fans of the law point to a louder voice for fast food workers, who’ve long been at the bottom of the labor hierarchy. Despite efforts over decades to improve their conditions, these workers have been sent to the back of the line repeatedly.

Since most fast food locations are operated by franchisees, organizing is only possible across the locations that the franchisee owns, which is typically single digits or less. This new law allows wider bargaining power that workers in other industries enjoy.

On the other hand, critics are pointing to small restaurants that will get burned. If McDonald’s is paying its workers $22, why would someone go to the mom-and-pop across the street paying $15? These shops can barely find workers as is.

Plus, with groceries and gas already inflated as f*ck, does the economy need more expensive fast food too? Having fewer items on the dollar menu disproportionately affects those at the bottom of the income ladder.

At the end of the day, California is putting its thumb on the scale to improve conditions for workers and address its income inequality, which is among the top five worst in the country.

Best case scenario: these workers gain increased spending power and boost the economy and tax revenues as a result.

Worst case: fast food companies either pass on higher costs to customers, worsening inflation, or replace workers in large numbers with robots.

If this model works in the world’s fifth-largest economy, expect other states to follow suit.


Wise Investor Says

“I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over.” — Warren Buffett



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