Is value investing more or less frequent/pertinent - Now, 10, 20, 30 years ago?
Title summarises, but a few questions follows.
1) Is value investing as common as it used to be? & is there still a place for it in the market 30 years from now?
2) If you sit buffet & munger down now, would their value investing strategy still yield them great if not somewhat strong returns over the next 20-30 years? (Appreciating that they invested through some of the greatest bull markets & the outlook at the moment isn’t looking as strong as some of the bull runs have).
3) Has anything changed in the last 10-20 years that makes value investing harder (other than market efficiency)?
4)Will it be increasingly hard to be an activist in the future?
Define "value investing". Buying stocks for than their net working capital doesn't exist anymore. Neither does most of the special sits style investing that Joel Greenblatt wrote about because he and his practitioners have picked up all of those free pennies. Buying equities at significant discounts to what a reasonable DCF / FCF based valuation would suggest and either making your return via share buybacks / cash return or waiting for multiples to mean revert is something pretty much every public equities investor with a holding period of longer than a week is doing / trying to do. Sometimes it works, sometimes you're right but you get your face torn off waiting for the market to recognize it (i.e. you're wrong).
Makes sense, thanks.
For those that follow fundamentalist investing, are outsized returns pretty much just luck based then?
AIso, if everyone is just doing the same thing, are there even many outsized returns to be had in the market today?
value investing works but on the short side - find what "value" guys like because its "cheap" and short it
funny and true
Regarding point 2- bull market or not it doesn’t matter. If you outperform in a flat or down market, your returns may still look crappy but you did better than everyone else did so you did a good job. Just have to be better than the average investor to outperform
See the performance of the following "value" funds:
More generally, anyone on the Behind the Balance Sheet podcast is proof value is alive and well.
True value is when you think a scenario you believe will occur is trading at a significant discount or premium. It's not simply screening low/high on multiples -- that might have worked in the old days as a proxy of value, but, like most signals, the alpha has significantly decayed. True value is extremely relevant.
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In no particular order:
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